Too much government intervention?

They used your tax dollars to bail you out and now they what a say in running your household....I8R...ok today is the fourth day from fall and naturally we see some signs of reversal. But we are still in shorting territory, unless OEX closes above 619. Tomorrow's numbers are 617, 614 and 610. Tomorrow ISM data will probably steer the market one way or the other. Forecasted values for both ends are 604 and 628.

2c

Weekend Update...A week in review

As you can see there was no doubt using pivot numbers to short for the last three days. You can short the market from 628 to 610 for approx 900 dollars per OEX option contract or day trade it for more. So what is going to happen come Monday? Downward sloping channels are bullish...eventually (with some exceptions) More than likely, it will bounce to 613ish and meet with selling again to s1 607. There may be a couple more days of selling ahead.

2c

Again, it is so predictable...

Up in the morning and down at close. Picture perfect money making scenario. It failed the pivot 618 and shorted to s1 612 and below. A piece of cake. Now it closed below s1. No matter what others are saying and hoping, below 615, it is down trend. Monday's numbers are 617, 613 and 607. This is getting closer to the fib target of 600. Next week is ISM data which will be bad and if recession is confirmed, getting to the target will be accelerated. In order for the market to reverse again it has to overcome 613, 617 and 620. Will print weekend updates when more time is available later.

Good luck folks

2c

The bulls caved in......

Yesterday the bulls were fighting tooth and nail to hold 620, and today they gave up. It was a pleasure to short every time it failed the pivot of 623. At the end of the day support s1 619 could not hold any longer. Now it is a short on rallies time until 600ish as indicated in the chart using basic channelling and fib ratios. Counting yesterday as the first day of closing below pivot, it should have one to two more days of selling and that should bring us to April before any meaningful rally. Actually this pull back should be quite obvious for OIH, Nasdaq and 3 horsemen are all topped out. It was kind of mind boggling to see futures way up this morning. You would have thought they know what they are doing. Tomorrow's numbers are 621, 618 and 612. Based on today's closing between s1 and s2, there may be a pop in the morning and you know what is going to happen then, especially on a Friday.

2c

Well sentiment has changed..

Down it goes as expected. It closed below pivot 627 but 620 seems to provide support. As long as 620 is not broken to the down side the bulls still have a chance. Today is quite like Jan29. Normally, leaving shorts overnight is a sure thing especially tomorrow we have GDP which is bound to be bad. But then again the market can take a bad GDP and turn it into meaning more rate cut. Tomorrow's numbers are 626, 623 and 619. If 620 is not broken to the down side, the market can have another pop before it really retraces. Will see.

2c

The market should come down soon...

It seems that the bulls are stubborn but on the other hand it is always the late comers that will get hurt. Tomorrow's numbers are 631, 627 and 624. You can see the numbers narrowing and is an NR7. So break out is imminent. Which way will it break out? After close to 1000 Dow point rise, your best guess. In addition, we have Durable Orders and New Home Sales for tomorrow. A check or comparison to previous chart patterns, down drift is at hand. It will be very surprise to see continual upward movement albeit very good news.

2c

More crooks...

Imagine you had inside information, bought BSC at 2 dollars and now a new deal said it is at 10....the shorts were slaughtered overnight....that is why playing the index is much safer. Ok, because of this stupid news, it took the upside route. But no sweat, what comes up must come down. May be just 24 hours delay... the following chart is self-explanatory. It retested from where it broke out from and using fib arc and channelling, it should fall back to 615 .....tormorrow's numbers are 633, 627 and 622.

2c

Weekend Update... there can only be two choices

either it runs all the way up to 636 and finishes off a 1.0 retracement from Feb27 or falls back to reality to 594ish. Right now it seems the later is of higher probability. First, upward sloping channel is bearish and second it has gone up more than 10 points from the forecasted value of 605 and it has to come back to mama....

2c

Don't you just love this market...

The DOW is up and down 300 points daily! In any case, it closed above pivot 610 and above r1 617. You probably know what is going to happen come Monday...Price level at extreme but volatility is not...hmm, is that because the option players are not buying this? Today the closing price is right at the line where all attempts to go above have been clubbered since last October. This is not to say it will not succeed this time. Certainly there seems to be market rotation from metals/commodity plays to finance. Are we sure all sublime problems are behind us? If it is only just one or two investment banks go belly up then the Fed is doing things too heavy handed... Jim Rogers has a point that the Fed has overstepped. They should be more concerned about a strong dollar and the economy than bailing out investment bankers. Monday's numbers are 626, 615 and 609. Will not be surprised to see a pull back to 610.

2c

This is no surprise

Pull back it did. What a day for a short! There is more to come. It is not good that it failed the test for 620ish reistance line and closed below pivot 610 today. 598 is a near term target and if it closes below 598 tomorrow, the market has not found a bottom yet. Tomorrow's numbers are 616, 610, 598.

2c

Wow

It has gone from OS to OB in on day. Technically, it has changed the near term trend to up. Though more upside is to be expected, the buying sentiment peaked today. It closed near the long term trend line 620ish. It is not surprising to see a retrace tomorrow. The numbers are 627, 610 and 602.

2c

Signs of rebound

Although it closed below pivot 599, but price and volatility at extremes. It is a turtlesoup buy following a WR7. Tomorrow's numbers are 600, 592 and 585. It will be encouraging if it can close above 600. This is providing the Fed cut rate by a full 100 basis points and there is no more bad news.

2c

Weekend Updates - all eyes on the Fed

See if it can break out of 605, the downward sloping channel is bullish.

2c

They are all crooks.....

Bear Stern holding off of problems....right off the gate 605 pivot was violated and there was no doubt for shorts, fell into the 598 and s1-s2 zone and short coverings at the close to below pivot 605. It is now back to the sell zone. It looks like the market is pricing in a disappointment for the Fed cut next week. If that is the case, we have not seen the bottom yet. Monday's numbers are 608, 599 and 587. It looks like an up to sideway day on Monday and if the Fed disapoints on Tuesday then the sellings will resume and it is not going to be pretty.

Good luck

2c

Trading the King's Crown

Amazing technicals....just look at where the buy point was today...exactly at the right shoulder and herds of buyers. A reverse H&S is developing if 616 is broken to the upside...long long and long....But remember, it could fail at the neckline too!! However, much volatility is ahead. Today it closed below pivot 610 and expect some down drafts tomorrow. It will be a down open tomorrow morning and is a Friday too. Tomorrow's numbers are 615, 605 and 598.

2c

Not much to say

so it traded between r1 618 and pvt 604. You could have shorted it at r1 and closed out at pivot by EOD. Still uptrend with 50% retracement today. Tomorrow's numbers are 614, 610 and 602. There is a possibility of a reverse H&S developing and will see how it unfold.

2c

WOW....

Rebound was expected but not to this extend. The forecasted value 604 was realised in the first 15 minutes. Lucky all shorts were closed out last night. But what to do if you have no positions? No sweats. Just wait for the pattern to develope. For every gap up because of short coverings there is a retrace. As you can see longs were initiated when it broke out of the downward sloping bullish channel to the upside. The daily low was at r1 595, very bullish. It was a W formation and fib extension 1.68 was minimum. There should be more upside but after a 400 DOW point day it is only logical to close out all longs. Don't be agreed or you will give it all back. Tomorrow's numbers are 618, 604 and 597. If the uptrend is to continue, the low of the day should not be lower than 604 and should close near 618 r1, otherwise it is a one day wonder. The near term target conservatively should be 620ish.

2c

History repeats itself...

As you can see in the chart, shorts were initiated when it failed to surpass pivot of 598 and were closed at S1 591. Shorts were initiated again when it broke to the downside from the upward sloping bearish channel,closed at 588. Why 588? that is the weekly S1. Again, the rest of the day was left to the amateurs. Tomorrow's numbers are 595, 592 and 586. Selling pressure peaked, price and volatility at extremes, sitting at weekly support and too far off from forecasted value of 604, a rebound is warranted for tomorrow.
(ps in the chart 588 is weekly s1 not pvt.too lazy to redo chart)
2c

Weekend Update - Dow Waves - part II

To continue last weekend's update, just could not help locating a possible target for the DOW. The total down move of wave1 to wave3
was 1454+2135=3589 points and 0.38 of that is 1363 down points for wave5 from Feb27 of 12756 high. This leads us to DOW 11393. Using Fib arc from 17Jul06, they amazingly conincide.This is the first target for DOW and is also 0.78 retrace from rise of 17Jul06. This is only the first target, it can go lower.

2c

Anatomy of a day trade

We knew today's numbers were 609, 605 and 597 and we did not have a position going into today. All we knew was down market. OK, it gapped down to S1 (597) due to bad employment numbers. Patience paid off when it reversed and touched pivot (605). Shorts were initiated then closed when it reached S1(597) again for approx 7 points. (= 3.5 bucks). Then there was the upward sloping bearish channel. When it broke the upward sloping channel to the down side, shorts were initiated again. This section we were dealing with S1 (597)to S2 (584). Normally it ends somewhere in between the two. You can use channelling to govern the exit. When it broke out of the bullish downward sloping channel to the up side, shorts were closed. Another 5 points or 2.5 bucks. You do not need fancy charts, just pivot numbers and simple straight lines to make a buck. In the real world, you do not get the 7 bucks exactly. Allow for slippage to aim at 70% of 7 bucks = approx 5 dollars is not bad at all. Could you play the upmoves, yes, but it would be against main trend and you would be vulnerable to severe down drafts. Anyways, more sellings to come. Monday's numbers are 604, 598, 591. Since you see the pivot going lower and lower daily, it does not take a genius to recognise a down trend.

2c

Not good...

so much bad news everyday and as soon as it fell below pivot 613 at open going long was out of the question, especially yesterday's buying sentiment was little. Now, the market better reverses in the next two days else the weekend update on ewave is about to happen. Wave5 to retest the Jan lows. Tomorrow's number 610, 605 and 597. Go by the pivot numbers and you will not get hurt.

2c

It's a buy....

Right out of the gate it traded to r2 (618ish) and theorectically a pullback was expected with or without the stupid AMBK news which only amplified it. But the pivot (608ish) held and onwards back to close near r1 (615). Tomorrow's numbers are 619, 613 and 608. Not starting a strong up trend since buying sentiment is miniscule, but still a buy until proven otherwise. Near term target is 623 then 630.

2c

How many times can you beat a dead horse?

Citigroup again and is it not old news? Intc is not supposed to be a market mover anymore. Anyways, it was a weak buy and the bears had it again but what an amazing reversal. DIA has a turtle soup buy signal today. Every day the signal is stronger but not confirmed yet. All gurus are pointing to Friday as possible buy day. Today, it closed at about pivot. Tomorrow's numbers are 615, 609 and 605. All the market has to do tomorrow is to close at 615 at a minimum and then confirmed buy signal is out.

2c

Well

Today's S1 (607) has not been broken. Tomorrow's numbers are 616, 612 and 610. It is an inside day and NR7. There are signs of bouncing. ISM data was bad but better than expected. If it were not Warren Buffet's mouthing off the economy, it would have reversed earlier in the day. OK this is an early buy but true strength will not come by until it closes above 624. So ewave is just that and will see how it unfolds. Weekend's comment was mistakenly deleted, and apology to the commenter.

2c

Weekend Update - Dow Waves

Let's revisit waves again. Dow is being used for OEX charts are screwed up. OK.

Wave 1 - 5 polywaves - Oct11 to Nov27 - 1454 points down
Wave 2 - 3 abc corrective waves - Nov27 to Dec11 - 1036 points up
Wave 3 - 5 polywaves - Dec11 to Jan22 - 2135 points down
Wave 4 - Triangle abcde 5 waves - Jan22 to Feb28 - trianlge often occurs in wave 4 and according to Elliot it has got to be no more than 5 waves. The waves are progressively smaller than the previous ones and wave e can protrude a bit. The triangle has already been broken out and completed. The target of wave e is minimum 0.75 of the widest one which is wave b in the triangle and the target should have been 12996, not quite reached but EMA 89 is the limiting band as you can see. So wave 4 was 1111 points up.
Wave 5 - Feb28 - can be a mono or poly wave but has already started and at this point the low of Jan22 is expected to be retested. It should be shorter than wave 3 but a thousand points down is not surprising.

Calling on all ewavers to comment

2c