Inside NR7

Much to do about nothing day but it closed above pivot 638. Monday's numbers are 641,640 and 638. A three point spread. Again, a break out is expected next week. The bias is to the upside. Target 647ish is still in the card. It is expected to be accomplished within 3 days with stochastic pop. The weekly data shows signs of turning around to the up side.

2c

On its way to second target...

We got the steep rise today. A higher target is anticipated now. First 645 then perhaps higher. The upper resistance line is at 660 which is a long way to go. But today's action put the market back in short term up trend. There is a flurry of economic data tomorrow morning and is always interesting to see if the market will shrug off any bad news to continue its near term up trend. Tormorrow's numbers are 643, 638 and 634.

2c

All on board, ship shape....

Green to go and this is atypical of retesting before climbing higher. Opened near r1 635, fell to S1 629 and up to r1 again. It is classic. Now if you look at the 30 minute chart, the lower line of the bearish upward sloping channel was formed and two upper lines could be projected. It is clear that because of the angle of ascent, there is a much higher probability of achieving 639 than 645. It appears at this time that 639 or approx SPX 1400 is the top for this round. Unless there is a steep rise in the next two days. Time will tell. Tomorrow's numbers are 637, 633 and 630.

2c

Turtlesoupbuy+1

Beautiful, it closed above pivot 631. Tomorrow's numbers are 636, 632 and 629. It is expected that the market will go up from here to reach the forecasted targets, first 639 then perhaps 645. However, tomorrow we have Durable Goods number and the market probably will not go up in a straight line. This is the power of statistics while it was not obvious using regular charting techniques.

Good luck

2c

Weekend Update May2308

This is a bold attempt to do a forecast here. Assuming the mother of all short squeeze will happen on Tuesday. Then we have the lower line of the new downward channel. Using the projected upper line of the channel and Fib 618 retracement we have a new target of 645ish in about 5 days?

2c

Turtlesoupbuy....

Everything as anticipated, shorted when it fell past 635 s1 from a break out from the NR7. A turtlesoupbuy signal, reversion to the mean, price and volatility at extremes, foretell a very high probability of bouncing back to 639 which is Fib 382 and Fib EMA 89. Tuesday's numbers are 634, 631and 626.

2c

Range narrowing

It was an easy decision today, for as soon as it was rejected from pivot 639, shorts were initiated and closed out when there was a profit. Tomorrow's numbers are 639, 637 and 635. A 4 point spread and is an NR7. It should be easy then, go with the flow tomorrow, long above 639 and short below 635. At 10am tomorrow, there is the existing home sale and more than likely no good, therefore the bias is down. This finishes wave 5 within the down channel before heading back up. Although other indicators point to one more day of down slide, the closing number is more than 10 points from the forecasted value and this normally will trigger a reversion. In any case follow the pivot numbers for action.

2c

Wow...

Second forcast and then some was reached one day again. Two important supports 644 and 639 were broken. Tomorrow's numbers are 644, 639 and 630. Yes a wide spread and WR7 with pattern violation. A dead cat bounce is expected but not to exceed 639. All indicators point to more downside to come. This time the target is 630 as in the posted chart.

2c

Go ahead, make my day...

Ha, the forecasted target was reached in one day. Thanks to Warren Buffet, George Soros and of course the PPI. It was a no brainer day again. Initiated shorts at open and closed out by EOD. Now you have seen the power of Turtlesoupsell and WR7 signals and of course the self-fullfiling Fib ratios. What is going to happen next? The posted chart today is completely imaginery using past trading experience. First, tomorrow's numbers are 651, 647 and 642. Since it broke out of the bearish upward sloping channel to the downside, it will retrace to where it broke out from. A 382 Fib is 649ish and just above the pivot 647 a bit. If the market is really very bearish then a Fib 263 to the pivot 647. Either point should provide the information to define the upper channel line of the now downward sloping channel. Using the lower channel line and the Fib 100 mark will get us to the next target which is 638ish and this is also an important moving average number. Have fun....

PS this was also the Wolfe Waves formation with the target nailed exactly...see posted chart 2

2c

Turtlesoupsell and WR7

OK, first off, if you followed the pivot numbers, when it was above r1 655 and heading towards r2 658, you should be all ready to initiate a short. (ecxcept of course in the case of pattern violation). Closed it out at pivot 650 or s1 or lower channel. It was a healthy $300 per contract. Now we got a turtlesoupsell and an WR7. Tomorrow's numbers are 658, 654 and 650. You know it is trend exhaustion. Going back in time, we had a tutlesoupsell, WR7 on May2 and a sell off out of the channel 3 days later. Right now the market is in a stochastic pop situation, initiating longs are not wise. With a TSS, WR7 the possibilty of going past today's high of 659ish without a retracement is very slim. If the retracement is to occur, the target is between 618 and 786 Fib and that is approx. 642-644ish and again as noted before the weekly s1. See if the PPI tomorrow will push it down. The FIB EMA 233 so far is capping the advance. OEX is capped at 653ish so far.

2c

Weekend update May17 08

A lot of talk is about the VIX to VXV ratio these days. Basically, it it the SP500 one month to three month implied volatility ratio. Would it give us some insight into tops and bottoms? More studies are needed. But in the interim take note at the posted chart today...hmmm

2c

Still in uptrend but...

there should be a good retracement come next week. OEX still could not break out of Fib EMA 233 653ish. Many Japanese candlestick hangingmen occurring on indexes. It should be two good trades today if you follow the pivot. A short to 648 and a long to 652. Monday's numbers are 655, 650 and 647. From the low of May9 638 to the high of May16 653 is 15 points in six days. You can work out the retracement. A 2/3 retracement is 10 points from 653 equating to 643which is the weekly s1. Watch if 647 is broken to the downside next week. Although it is still possible to continue the advance to 655-657.

Have a good weekend

2c

A no brainer

Everything as planned...tomorrow's numbers are 655, 650 and 647. As an overall review, the OEX may be heading towards 675ish.

2c

Self fulfilling prophecy

So it was tame CPI coupled with NR7 (narrowing spread) to cause a break out of 645 to the up side. It was a race to 786 Fib and sold off afterwards. Two good trades, one long one short and was done for the day. It is risky to keep your position overnight. Now where do we go from here? The market was turned off multiple times from the Fib EMA 233 area. Price and volatility at opposite extremes again and that perhaps tiggered off the midday selling. However, the market has barely hooked onto the uptrend number of 648. As in the posted chart, if the market can rebound at the lower trend line of the up channel, there should be more to go till near term target of 655. But if it falls out of the channel, then the near term target will be 641. The upward sloping channel is bearish but it is heart breaking to see it breaking down with such a short channel. In any case, tomorrow's numbers are 650, 647 and 644. If the uptrend is to continue, it will have to close above 647.

2c

No break out today

It did not break out of 645. Tomorrow's numbers are 646, 644 and 641. An NR7 and it can breakout either way. Unless the CPI tomorrow is extremely tame, the bias is down. For the simple fact that the Fed is near the end of an interest rate cut cycle. A bad CPI will give them reason to do so. In addition, we are still in short term down trend unless 648 is taken out to the up side. Will see.

2c

A high chance of breaking out...

It just stopped at the upper channel 645. It will depend on retail sale number tomorrow. Very similar to April 16 for comparison but it has to take out 648 to regain up trend. One for the bulls today.
Tomorrow's numbers are 648, 643 and 640.

2c

So the selling continues...

Volatility and price at opposite extremes and range narrowing. Monday's numbers are 642, 640 and 637. As you can see in today's posted chart, s1, r1 define the channel and it may be range bound until it breaks out. However, we are still in sell zone until 645 is taken out.

2c

Don't be fooled...more selling to come

Tomorrow's numbers are 647, 643 and 641. Short it when it goes to r1.

2c

The art of probability

Life is all about probabilities. OK, the pattern was correctly identified, now what. Short on rallies time and tomorrow's numbers are 650, 646 and 637 and one possible target is 632.

2c

Alert

Although the target of the reverse H&S has it to 675ish. There is something disturbing. The statistical forecasted value is very close to the lower band (less than 2 points) and this is equivalent to the rising wedge scenario. The last time it happened was the week of Oct8 last year and you know what happened shortly after. It is almost topping out at 655 which is the Fib EMA 233. In other words it is rising too much too fast. Not really sure CSCO or DIS could do anything. OK today is a funny day. Early in the day it completed the 15 minutes H&S target to 645ish and powered ahead and of course again stopped at 655. Tomorrow's numbers are 657, 651 and 647. A 10 point spread, it is a wide range. Time will tell.

2c

Uptrend not broken yet...

Though it closed near s1. Until 648 is violated to the downside we are still in uptrend. Tomorrow's numbers are 654, 651, 648. In retrospect, if you bought OEX 610 May call on April 16 when the trend reversed and kept it, it had gone from 2k to 4.5k per contract.

2c

Week update -May02- Going forward

Upon more reflection, the market is very bullish. Using channels, ab=cd, Fibs 786 and inverse H&S, 675 is a possible target which is approximately SPX 1450.

2c

A good short

History does repeat itself. With good employment numbers, any rally would be shorted, because it means no more rate cuts? OK, whenever it goes to r1-r2 >656, short till the pivot and review. It did not break the pivot 648, then closed out. It looks like more upside to come. Monday's numbers are 657, 654, 651. Will do a weekend update later.

Have a good weekend.

2c

What the...

as long as it has not broken the lower channel, yesterday's forecast was out the door. As a matter of fact you can see that the rally accelerated when it was past pivot 644. OK, tomorrow's numbers are 656, 648 and 644. A 12 point spread and you should know what this is. Yes a WR7 and turtlesoup+1 too. As in the posted chart today an upward sloping bearish channel. The least it should do is to fall back to 645ish. At least 618 if not 786 if you know what I mean.

2c