The Last Forecast......

There will be no more comments.....

Good luck

2c

This is to be expected

The Fed's heighten awareness on inflation and end of rate cut. There should be continual downside to come until the Fed raise rates to indicate that the economy is improving. You know it will be a long time and the dark days of summer is a long grinding down........there was a proprietary indicator that gave a sell signal yesterday. That was the hmmm....yesterday....But if you following the pivot there will be no harm....Opened below pivot and S1, short it ......another leg down is in the work.....never mind what other gurus will say....

As an aside, this site will be closed off soon... Just do not feel like writing it anymore...concentrate on trading and the system that is being used is supreme... and if you follow this site for the past year, you should have a taste of it... it is all stats and allow me to say screw the MACDs....they are useless ...

good luck

2c

Hmmm....

It was a weak bull day. Tomorrow's numbers are 607, 602 and 597. It is at the cross road. It can continue up to 615 or continue to fall. RIMM AH was down 12 bucks, cause it missed. The best strategy to play this kind of market is to use pivot numbers for day trading.

2c

Classic signs of reversal

Tomorrow's numbers are 603, 598 and 592. Classic falling wedge reversal in place. Expect rise to 605, 615 then 627. Of course it could fail in any one of those levels.

2c

Possibility of a bounce

Tomorrow's numbers are 599, 597 and 595. A four point spread and an NR7. Although all NR7 broke to the downside in this downtrend so far, there is the possibility of a bounce in a day or two. The volatility gave the first signal, but this is not the universe. In any case 605 is the resistance.

2c

No signs of turning yet

Target 600-595ish almost reached and it would appear that a reversal before FOMC may be wishful thinking. It is almost there perhaps mid-week next week. Monday's numbers are 605, 600 and 593 and a yes a WR7.

2c

Conflicting signals...caution advised

Today it showed some signs of reversal. There are turtlesoupbuy signals from OEX, SPX and DOW now. Although other indicators still point to more down side but caution is advised here. There may be just one or more day of down to sideway movement. The falling wedge effect is getting close and that will lead to rally. Probably next week sometime and do not expect too much before FOMC. Tomorrow's numbers are 612, 608 and 604.

2c

Very bearish

The market could not even bounce back to pivot (616), but experience says if it fails at S1 (611), short. Tormorrow's numbers are 612, 609 and 604. A turtlesoupbuy signal is out today but probably will not be too effective under these conditons. Target 600-595ish is still in play for the next few days. After that a rally from a falling wedge scenario should be unfolding.

2c

Say Bye to 627

You probably notice by now all of the narrow range NR7/4 in a down trend would break to the downside. The reverse is true for an up trend such as in POT. As mentioned before the moving average at 619-620ish has been keeping the market down so far and it was no different this time. Today, once it broke pivot 618 to the downside, it never looked back. Tomorrow's numbers are 619, 616 and 611. Expect a bounce to 616ish and fails. The near term target will be around 608, at least a retest of the previous low, then onwards to 600 or SPX 1300ish.

2c

NR7

Tomorrow's numbers are 621, 618 and 615 with a 7 point spread. It is not quite a narrow range but nevertheless narrowest of the past 7 days. The market is at the moving average where it has been turned back every time since May21 this year. Not to say it cannot surpass it but odds are for may be a couple more days of trying to reach 627ish before continuing its down trend.

2c

buy signal

It reached the first target/resistance at 619. If it can take out 619 then the next target is 627 or SPX 1375 before it falls again unless it breaks the channel to the upside. Monday's numbers are 622, 616 and 613. It is expected to retrace Monday but for the trend to continue it has to close above 616.

2c

No turn yet...

Did not close above pivot 612. Traders were cautious ahead of PPI/CPI tomorrow. Friday's numbers are 616, 611 and 605. The Nasty together with AAPL and RIMM are turning south. It is risky to leave positions overnight. There is no buy signal yet and even if it is turning the near term resistance is 619ish.

2c

All bets are off....

The market is more bearish than orginally thought. There is a very high probability that it will bounce tomorrow and if it does not then it is like January of this year with a long grinding downward and will be scary. Tomorrow's numbers are 615, 612 and 605. The only sure thing about a turn is when it closes above the pivot 612 tomorrow. In the past few days, it has been falling from daily pivots. All indicators are lagging and they can only provide a probability of success. In other words, sadly tomorrow has a better chance of turning than today. Price is the number one indicator and if it closes above pivot then it will turn. But then again fundamentals can crush it down again.

good luck

2c

Fingers crossed

Tomorrow's numbers are 623, 619 and 615. It is an inside NR4. Price and volatility at extremes, selling sentiment falling....better have a rebound tomorrow and the minimum target is 627 else the bears will come out again.

2c

This post may be harmful to the bears....

First, tomorrow's numbers are 624, 619 and 615. Nothing out of the ordinary. Not exactly a reversal yet but could be within days. The posted chart today shows bigger channels for bigger pictures. A reverse H&S is developing and will take us to OEX 700ish. This scenario will be invalidated if it falls out of the channel in the next few days.

2c

Weekend update Jun07 08

One reader asked for a wave count. The only count that make sense or one scenario would be in the posted chart. This requires going back to Oct 07. The target of wave 3 if this is it will be OEX 700, SPX 1500 or Dow 13600. This is also Fib 786 retrace from last Oct 07. Right now it is finishing wave 2 of five waves. Take it with a grain of salt. The turning points are governed by channelling and it is up to you to do the Fib calculations. EW works when it works.

2c

Just cannot do swing trade anymore

The only way is day trading to survive or be a very long term investor. A bad employment number just nullified improvements in GDP, ISM, and productivity gains. The market slided further every time Bush spoke on the economy. It would have been better for him to keep his mouth shut. Ok we had a 400 Dow points drop and that obviously turned all indicators down and invalidated all forecasts. The numbers for Monday are 631, 625 and 613. An 18 points spread and of course WR7. This is the widest WR7 one could remember. There is also the Turtlesoupbuy signal out today. We had one two days ago and the effect of this one may not be too significant. The Trin was way up to 2.6 and the only other times were Mar 17 and April 15 and you know what happened shortly after. Looking at end of day option trades, many large blocks of Puts went through. You know what's going to happen...either a black Monday or a huge short squeeze come Monday. It is also a Bradley turn day Monday and who knows how significant that is.

Let's look at more charts. In the posted chart today, the channel is downward sloping and we know it is bullish but we don't know when. It is now at the confluence of 786 retracement from Apr 15 and 050 retracement from March 17. It also touches the lower channel. In the weekly data, it is at the oversold area, but it can stay there for a while. However, the only other time it stays OS for two weeks were back in January this year when we had the credit crunch scare. Do we still have that problem? With all the aggressive Fed easings the problem is supposed to have been slowly eliminated. This then must be recession fear. But then you have improved GDP, ISM, and productivity. Not great numbers, but nevertheless improving. The question is why the big sell off today? The bad employment number will probabily annihilate the view that the Fed is going to raise rates. All these lead one to believe that today's selling was way overdone and a bounce is at hand. This is the rational thinking but then the market is irrational. The trend is still down and 640 is the wall of resistance.

2c

Boy what a turtlesoupbuy signal....

First off, tomorrow's numbers are 643, 635 and 631. A 12 point spread and of course WR7. If you remember, the weekly oversold condition was mentioned in earlier post and today was the fulfillment day to work it off. As in the posted chart which is self explanatory, a 382 retracement is expected for a strong trend and perhaps it defines the lower line of the upward channel. More upside is expected. The near term target is at least r1 which is 643. Looks like the market is going to retest the old high DOW 13,000 or the OEX 660. Will see. Again buy on pullback until it falls out of the channel to the downside.

2c

Turtlesoupbuy+1...but

either it bouces tomorrow or falls to 610ish (Fib 618) before a turn. Either way it is still downtrend until 635 is taken out to the upside. Tomorrow's numbers are 631, 628 and 624. The bias is more down, but then it depends very much on coming Employment number. The bulls have lost it since last Friday May30 so in case of doubt sell it.

2c

Not good

broke out of the lower channel, target 600ish. Tomorrow's numbers are 633, 629 and 623. A 10 point spread and WR7. This is also a turtlesoupbuy also. But other signals still pointing to a sell.

2c

OK so it broke to the down side

from the NR7. This is disappointing but the fact. The market started selling even before the ISM data was released. If you look at it closely the ISM data has improved although still indicates contraction but GDP data was revised to the upside. So inflation must still be the concern. But what can the market do about it. Sell till inflation comes down? At this point, it is not convincing that June will be a down month. There may be a few more days of selling but weekly data shows very oversold. Tomorrow's numbers are 637, 634 and 629.

2c