This is trying...

It closed right at 680, but it tested 673 and bounced. But the best thing that came out from all these was 670 held. As mentioned before, the market came out from oversold and never reached overbought, unless the market is extemely weak, there is still upside to go. The bias now is up and if it continues next week, the target is Fib 61.8 retrace from Oct31 and that will take us to 704. Watch 682, 678 and 674 Monday.

ps. I see a reverse H&S on a 60 min chart from Oct31, kind of slanting, but if it is the case, it confirms target 704.


2c

Unfinished business on the up side

It is a frustrating day for the bulls. However, as much as the market wants to retest the low, it has unfinished business on the up side. Very tempting to day trade it but swing trade is the purpose of this blog. Until OEX 670 is broken to the downside, the game is not entirely over for the bulls. Today was very much like August 3rd. Daily pivot broken in a short term up trend. The bulls better take over tomorrow or the consequence will be grave. Playing with the house money now and if OEX 670 does not hold will "sell the house to go full force short" as they say. Tomorow's numbers are 687, 680 and 673.

2c

Scary close, but......

Since it closed above 682, the (near term) uptrend is still intact. A 10 point rise from 689 making it to 699 or or higher to 708 is still in the card. CPI tomorrow may just be able to do it.

2c

A no brainer day

As soon as the market opened, OEX 676 was surpassed in no time. Went long and remained long. OEX options still prove to be the most profitable of all index options. Chose in-the-money or near-the-money options as much as possible. The buy signal is officially out, simply because of WMT and GS. It is essential that it stays above 690 for it to advance higher. OEX 700 is the near term target. If it closes below 682, the rally is in doubt.


2c

The ultimate revenge...

Played the expected bounce in the morning. OEX 680 Nov calls it was, scraped 50% profit and is now completely out of Calls. No trades in the afternoon, for fear of selling into close and there it was. The market is still very weak, and no buy signals yet. Looks like it is heading for the August low. Don't leave positions overnight. Tomorrow's numbers are 681, 676 and 669. If you trade tomorrow, stay close to OEX 675 or 670 as much as possible to day trade both sides. It has to close above 676 to even consider leaving any long position overnight.

good luck

2c

Another one...

If the banks come out one a day with their subprime problems, we could see the market declines to no end. However, technically speaking many indicators point to a rebound Monday. The H&S should be considered finally complete. The sell off by the close was obvious that no one wanted to keep a position over the weekend. Since oil stocks are also retreating, the rebound will be anaemic. Right now it is not hopeful that it will go any further than 692. It has to close above 679 though.
2c

Rebounded.....without helicopter Ben

OEX 685 was right on target and more. Never thought the bull trap could cause so much damage. It is also hard to believe people would throw away quality stocks like RIMM and AAPL. Day traded RIMM today when it was down almost 14 points and rode it back up. it was a beautiful trade. Not sure if today was the capitulation day, but daily EMA 233 did attract and it halted the decline. Tomorrow on 30 minute chart one would be looking at 692 then 699, EMA 89 which is a Fib No. After that, OEX 705, EMA 233 which is another Fib no. It may be a stretch but another milestone if the market were to go back uptrend. Nasdaq will be under a bit of pressure tomorrow again, since QCOM beats but outlook is not good. Howver, NVDA tops estimates.

One assumption is that the head and shoulder from Oct23 has been completed. But looking at the entire picture, we are not completely out of the woods yet.

2c