The power of pivots...

Once again, it works. As soon as pivot 644 became resistance, short, short, short...did not matter what B2 Bomber Ben said, it was going down. The tripping point was that he mentioned "theorectically reducing rates may work". The market took it as academic and not working. There was no return after that. Bernanke is no Greenspan. This market is a day trader's market. IBM after hours up 5 points. However, tomorrow's numbers are 639, 631 and 617. If it cannot break above 631, you know what to do. Looking at the technicals tonight, Ben screwed up big time for a rally today and it is not going to turn any time soon. If it gaps up tomorrow because of IBM, there will be another wave of selling into strength just like a few days ago.

2c

Signs of turning...but

Turtlesoup+1 buy signal, but this signal is not very accurate. Other signs are, very high selling sentiment, almost completion of wave5 at 637. The next few days are important. Lessen on your shorts and prepare to go long. The next wave should be an ABC up. Tomorrow's numbers are 650, 644 and 637. It has to take out 650 if it is going to turn.

2c

Trading is definitely an art....

practice, practice and more practice. The NR4 was fullfilled to the downside. This was a no brainer in light of the retail sales and Citigroup earnings. The tame PPI was pushed aside, since the Fed is no longer concerned although they are not admitting it. Recession and this is the bigger evil. The ability to do pattern recognition is important. If you look at Nov15/16, you will see the pattern. The weekend ewave update was the guide. Wave5 started in earnest. DOW 12,000 is doable. Tomorrow's number are 657, 652 and 642. Another 4 to 5 days of onslaught for the bulls is in the card. Will see if Jan 22 is the turn date, give and take some. If it cannot surpass 652 tomorrow, short it.

2c

Not convinced yet...

Impressive close right at R1 663. The buying and selling sentiment were just about equal. Today seemed to be more like Nov15/16. Technically, it is an NR4. The numbers are narrowing, 666, 662 and 659. A break out is anticipated one way or the other. Volatility does not yet reflect a trend change. The bias is still to the downside. There is a flurry of data coming tomorrow such as retail sales, ppi and bank earnings. Particularly for C, a 24 mil draw down, 24k job cut and 50% reduction in dividend are in the card.

2c

Weekend update

A bit of ewave...the numbers in circles represent trading days

A comparison of Oct to Dec 5 wave patterns

2c

The market is really sick

Today is like Nov15 retracement back to the neckline of H&S was only approx. 38%. As soon as the gap down was below 663, buying was out of the question. It tried once to surpass 663 but was turned down immediately. Looks like the weekly H&S is in control now and a target of March low of last year of about 620ish. In addition, it is earning season next week. It is easier to short than to go long. Monday's numbers are 663, 658 and 651. A 5-min chart shows a H&S which says we will revisit 648 in the very near term.





2c

All clear to buy....

Pivot 657 tested and held. He is still Helicopter Ben, not B1 Bomber Ben. As planned, all clear to hit the daily H&S neckline which is 676, 679ish. From 665 to 676, a good 10 points or approx. 5 bucks for Jan 660, or 665 calls. Tomorrow's numbers are 672, 663 and 657. Watch that pivot, for the rally to sustain, it has to close above it every day. If close below pivot on any day...run for life.

Have fun.

2cents