Trading the King's Crown

Amazing technicals....just look at where the buy point was today...exactly at the right shoulder and herds of buyers. A reverse H&S is developing if 616 is broken to the upside...long long and long....But remember, it could fail at the neckline too!! However, much volatility is ahead. Today it closed below pivot 610 and expect some down drafts tomorrow. It will be a down open tomorrow morning and is a Friday too. Tomorrow's numbers are 615, 605 and 598.

2c

Not much to say

so it traded between r1 618 and pvt 604. You could have shorted it at r1 and closed out at pivot by EOD. Still uptrend with 50% retracement today. Tomorrow's numbers are 614, 610 and 602. There is a possibility of a reverse H&S developing and will see how it unfold.

2c

WOW....

Rebound was expected but not to this extend. The forecasted value 604 was realised in the first 15 minutes. Lucky all shorts were closed out last night. But what to do if you have no positions? No sweats. Just wait for the pattern to develope. For every gap up because of short coverings there is a retrace. As you can see longs were initiated when it broke out of the downward sloping bullish channel to the upside. The daily low was at r1 595, very bullish. It was a W formation and fib extension 1.68 was minimum. There should be more upside but after a 400 DOW point day it is only logical to close out all longs. Don't be agreed or you will give it all back. Tomorrow's numbers are 618, 604 and 597. If the uptrend is to continue, the low of the day should not be lower than 604 and should close near 618 r1, otherwise it is a one day wonder. The near term target conservatively should be 620ish.

2c

History repeats itself...

As you can see in the chart, shorts were initiated when it failed to surpass pivot of 598 and were closed at S1 591. Shorts were initiated again when it broke to the downside from the upward sloping bearish channel,closed at 588. Why 588? that is the weekly S1. Again, the rest of the day was left to the amateurs. Tomorrow's numbers are 595, 592 and 586. Selling pressure peaked, price and volatility at extremes, sitting at weekly support and too far off from forecasted value of 604, a rebound is warranted for tomorrow.
(ps in the chart 588 is weekly s1 not pvt.too lazy to redo chart)
2c

Weekend Update - Dow Waves - part II

To continue last weekend's update, just could not help locating a possible target for the DOW. The total down move of wave1 to wave3
was 1454+2135=3589 points and 0.38 of that is 1363 down points for wave5 from Feb27 of 12756 high. This leads us to DOW 11393. Using Fib arc from 17Jul06, they amazingly conincide.This is the first target for DOW and is also 0.78 retrace from rise of 17Jul06. This is only the first target, it can go lower.

2c

Anatomy of a day trade

We knew today's numbers were 609, 605 and 597 and we did not have a position going into today. All we knew was down market. OK, it gapped down to S1 (597) due to bad employment numbers. Patience paid off when it reversed and touched pivot (605). Shorts were initiated then closed when it reached S1(597) again for approx 7 points. (= 3.5 bucks). Then there was the upward sloping bearish channel. When it broke the upward sloping channel to the down side, shorts were initiated again. This section we were dealing with S1 (597)to S2 (584). Normally it ends somewhere in between the two. You can use channelling to govern the exit. When it broke out of the bullish downward sloping channel to the up side, shorts were closed. Another 5 points or 2.5 bucks. You do not need fancy charts, just pivot numbers and simple straight lines to make a buck. In the real world, you do not get the 7 bucks exactly. Allow for slippage to aim at 70% of 7 bucks = approx 5 dollars is not bad at all. Could you play the upmoves, yes, but it would be against main trend and you would be vulnerable to severe down drafts. Anyways, more sellings to come. Monday's numbers are 604, 598, 591. Since you see the pivot going lower and lower daily, it does not take a genius to recognise a down trend.

2c

Not good...

so much bad news everyday and as soon as it fell below pivot 613 at open going long was out of the question, especially yesterday's buying sentiment was little. Now, the market better reverses in the next two days else the weekend update on ewave is about to happen. Wave5 to retest the Jan lows. Tomorrow's number 610, 605 and 597. Go by the pivot numbers and you will not get hurt.

2c