The end of rate cut?

The Fed indicated that the risks of inflation and slowing economy were balanced. One has to wonder if they are any forward looking. While cutting rate is good for the housing market, but detrimental to the dollar and causing crude oil to hit 95$ per barrel. These are all inflationary. Somehow, Jim Rogers might have a point in putting all investments in Chinese currency. Most of the gains in the market today was achieved before the Fed annoucement. As a matter of fact, the initial sell off was to due to inflation concerns. Although it closed above 717 and still in uptrend mode, it would not be surprised to see a sell off to 718ish. Watch 721 tomorrow closely. My original target of 725 was finally reached today. Option trading is like marathon running, it cannot stop. If it came down and regained its strength later on, although the market was higher but the option premium was not. Based on some early signals, took a small short position today, and sure felt lonely tonight.

2c

Helicopter Ben or with his landing gears out?

As expected, it was a lower high. The downside was a bit out of the norm for a pre FOMC day. May be the market was pricing in a quarter point rate cut. The uptrend has not been violated yet and the line in the sand today was 716ish. But watch closely tomorrow OEX 717 after the Fed annoucement. If it cannot close above that, troubles ahead.

2c

Out

of all Calls. If you had bought Calls on the 22Oct and sold them today the 29Oct, your money would have been doubled in six days. The target was supposedly OEX 725. However, the price action has gone from extreme oversold to extreme overbought. The decision was to liquidate everything without emotion even though the high of today was only 722ish. The pattern that formed today comparing to past pre FOMC days indicated that the probability of tomorrow's high exceeding today's high will be small. The more prudent thing to do would be to stay on the sideline until there is a definitive market reaction to the interest rate outcome, unless you are a gambler. Further, shorting is not advisable because the market has gone back to uptrend and counter trend trading is suicidal. It is also good money management in that if doubling the wagered money is the goal of every trade then once it is achieved, scaled out before the market takes it all back.

2c

Bulls in control again

After breaking out of 711, retested it and never looked back. Buyers were out in full force today and the near term target is still 725. Will look to unload some calls by then or by Wednesday and may leave some calls to play the Fed day. Everything as planned and could not ask for more.

2c

Bottoming process?

This bull/bear tug-of-war will have a decision soon. The bias is up. May be MSFT earnings will do it. It is up nicely after hour at time of writing. Today it traded in between 712r1 and 700s1 and closed above pivot. It better breaks out of 711 tomorrow if the bulls were to regain the long term up trend. Time is running out. Watch 706 tomorrow. If a break out occurs the near term target is 725. A break down is not anticipated at this point with only a few days to FOMC, but if it does, 701 then 691.

2c

Impressive reversal

It is with great pleasure not to have to trade intraday. Trading should be a pleasure, not a struggle. Consider if you can walk away the whole day without checking the market, knowing that you are on the right direction. Today it proves the point. From here on, on a closing basis, the market should continue to climb until of course the indicators say otherwise. The market fell as low as S2 today and from there a rebound was almost certain. Now that the market has retested its low and closed above 707pivot. It is free to go up. Tomorrow's numbers are 712R1, 704pvt and 700s1.

Good luck

2c

A Technical Buy

Buyers came out today with a good showing of closing above 706r1. Tomorrow's numbers are 711r1, 707pvt and 704s1. It is expected to reach the forecasted value of 717 and then onto retesting old high. But, one day at a time. Hold your longs.

2c