The market is getting to be too predictable and is scary. The pull back this morning stopped at exactly S1 690ish the upper ternd line and reversed from there. Could have pulled the trigger for a short last night and got out at 690 this morning for an almost 50% gain. But the Fed meeting complicated matters. Bought a few in-the-money calls for RIMM for a day trade for a small gain because of its upgrade.
Now OEX closed just above pivot 694 today, but it was not higher than yesterday's close and is "Hammerish". Besides the daily upward running channel is bearish. There is a more than 80% chance that Monday will be a down day. The VXO gave it away. If Monday is a down day, Tuesday's up and Wednesday is down. If Monday is up, then sell the news, Wednesday will be down. Either way you look at it there is a high probablity that retracement will start within 3 days.
2c
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2 comments:
Hey 2cents, bigelam from CS and ivillage. Nice blog.
How do you come up with these odds Monday up, Tuesday down, Wed down or etc odds. Any rules of your opinion?
Hi Bigelam, technicals point to a down Monday, especially when the market is bragging for a rate cut. If Monday is up then there is really no need for a rate cut, or it is already priced in. In any case, the day after the Fed day is mostly down and counting the number of up days it is due for a retracement on Wednesday.
2c
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