The Last Forecast......

There will be no more comments.....

Good luck

2c

This is to be expected

The Fed's heighten awareness on inflation and end of rate cut. There should be continual downside to come until the Fed raise rates to indicate that the economy is improving. You know it will be a long time and the dark days of summer is a long grinding down........there was a proprietary indicator that gave a sell signal yesterday. That was the hmmm....yesterday....But if you following the pivot there will be no harm....Opened below pivot and S1, short it ......another leg down is in the work.....never mind what other gurus will say....

As an aside, this site will be closed off soon... Just do not feel like writing it anymore...concentrate on trading and the system that is being used is supreme... and if you follow this site for the past year, you should have a taste of it... it is all stats and allow me to say screw the MACDs....they are useless ...

good luck

2c

Hmmm....

It was a weak bull day. Tomorrow's numbers are 607, 602 and 597. It is at the cross road. It can continue up to 615 or continue to fall. RIMM AH was down 12 bucks, cause it missed. The best strategy to play this kind of market is to use pivot numbers for day trading.

2c

Classic signs of reversal

Tomorrow's numbers are 603, 598 and 592. Classic falling wedge reversal in place. Expect rise to 605, 615 then 627. Of course it could fail in any one of those levels.

2c

Possibility of a bounce

Tomorrow's numbers are 599, 597 and 595. A four point spread and an NR7. Although all NR7 broke to the downside in this downtrend so far, there is the possibility of a bounce in a day or two. The volatility gave the first signal, but this is not the universe. In any case 605 is the resistance.

2c

No signs of turning yet

Target 600-595ish almost reached and it would appear that a reversal before FOMC may be wishful thinking. It is almost there perhaps mid-week next week. Monday's numbers are 605, 600 and 593 and a yes a WR7.

2c

Conflicting signals...caution advised

Today it showed some signs of reversal. There are turtlesoupbuy signals from OEX, SPX and DOW now. Although other indicators still point to more down side but caution is advised here. There may be just one or more day of down to sideway movement. The falling wedge effect is getting close and that will lead to rally. Probably next week sometime and do not expect too much before FOMC. Tomorrow's numbers are 612, 608 and 604.

2c

Very bearish

The market could not even bounce back to pivot (616), but experience says if it fails at S1 (611), short. Tormorrow's numbers are 612, 609 and 604. A turtlesoupbuy signal is out today but probably will not be too effective under these conditons. Target 600-595ish is still in play for the next few days. After that a rally from a falling wedge scenario should be unfolding.

2c

Say Bye to 627

You probably notice by now all of the narrow range NR7/4 in a down trend would break to the downside. The reverse is true for an up trend such as in POT. As mentioned before the moving average at 619-620ish has been keeping the market down so far and it was no different this time. Today, once it broke pivot 618 to the downside, it never looked back. Tomorrow's numbers are 619, 616 and 611. Expect a bounce to 616ish and fails. The near term target will be around 608, at least a retest of the previous low, then onwards to 600 or SPX 1300ish.

2c

NR7

Tomorrow's numbers are 621, 618 and 615 with a 7 point spread. It is not quite a narrow range but nevertheless narrowest of the past 7 days. The market is at the moving average where it has been turned back every time since May21 this year. Not to say it cannot surpass it but odds are for may be a couple more days of trying to reach 627ish before continuing its down trend.

2c

buy signal

It reached the first target/resistance at 619. If it can take out 619 then the next target is 627 or SPX 1375 before it falls again unless it breaks the channel to the upside. Monday's numbers are 622, 616 and 613. It is expected to retrace Monday but for the trend to continue it has to close above 616.

2c

No turn yet...

Did not close above pivot 612. Traders were cautious ahead of PPI/CPI tomorrow. Friday's numbers are 616, 611 and 605. The Nasty together with AAPL and RIMM are turning south. It is risky to leave positions overnight. There is no buy signal yet and even if it is turning the near term resistance is 619ish.

2c

All bets are off....

The market is more bearish than orginally thought. There is a very high probability that it will bounce tomorrow and if it does not then it is like January of this year with a long grinding downward and will be scary. Tomorrow's numbers are 615, 612 and 605. The only sure thing about a turn is when it closes above the pivot 612 tomorrow. In the past few days, it has been falling from daily pivots. All indicators are lagging and they can only provide a probability of success. In other words, sadly tomorrow has a better chance of turning than today. Price is the number one indicator and if it closes above pivot then it will turn. But then again fundamentals can crush it down again.

good luck

2c

Fingers crossed

Tomorrow's numbers are 623, 619 and 615. It is an inside NR4. Price and volatility at extremes, selling sentiment falling....better have a rebound tomorrow and the minimum target is 627 else the bears will come out again.

2c

This post may be harmful to the bears....

First, tomorrow's numbers are 624, 619 and 615. Nothing out of the ordinary. Not exactly a reversal yet but could be within days. The posted chart today shows bigger channels for bigger pictures. A reverse H&S is developing and will take us to OEX 700ish. This scenario will be invalidated if it falls out of the channel in the next few days.

2c

Weekend update Jun07 08

One reader asked for a wave count. The only count that make sense or one scenario would be in the posted chart. This requires going back to Oct 07. The target of wave 3 if this is it will be OEX 700, SPX 1500 or Dow 13600. This is also Fib 786 retrace from last Oct 07. Right now it is finishing wave 2 of five waves. Take it with a grain of salt. The turning points are governed by channelling and it is up to you to do the Fib calculations. EW works when it works.

2c

Just cannot do swing trade anymore

The only way is day trading to survive or be a very long term investor. A bad employment number just nullified improvements in GDP, ISM, and productivity gains. The market slided further every time Bush spoke on the economy. It would have been better for him to keep his mouth shut. Ok we had a 400 Dow points drop and that obviously turned all indicators down and invalidated all forecasts. The numbers for Monday are 631, 625 and 613. An 18 points spread and of course WR7. This is the widest WR7 one could remember. There is also the Turtlesoupbuy signal out today. We had one two days ago and the effect of this one may not be too significant. The Trin was way up to 2.6 and the only other times were Mar 17 and April 15 and you know what happened shortly after. Looking at end of day option trades, many large blocks of Puts went through. You know what's going to happen...either a black Monday or a huge short squeeze come Monday. It is also a Bradley turn day Monday and who knows how significant that is.

Let's look at more charts. In the posted chart today, the channel is downward sloping and we know it is bullish but we don't know when. It is now at the confluence of 786 retracement from Apr 15 and 050 retracement from March 17. It also touches the lower channel. In the weekly data, it is at the oversold area, but it can stay there for a while. However, the only other time it stays OS for two weeks were back in January this year when we had the credit crunch scare. Do we still have that problem? With all the aggressive Fed easings the problem is supposed to have been slowly eliminated. This then must be recession fear. But then you have improved GDP, ISM, and productivity. Not great numbers, but nevertheless improving. The question is why the big sell off today? The bad employment number will probabily annihilate the view that the Fed is going to raise rates. All these lead one to believe that today's selling was way overdone and a bounce is at hand. This is the rational thinking but then the market is irrational. The trend is still down and 640 is the wall of resistance.

2c

Boy what a turtlesoupbuy signal....

First off, tomorrow's numbers are 643, 635 and 631. A 12 point spread and of course WR7. If you remember, the weekly oversold condition was mentioned in earlier post and today was the fulfillment day to work it off. As in the posted chart which is self explanatory, a 382 retracement is expected for a strong trend and perhaps it defines the lower line of the upward channel. More upside is expected. The near term target is at least r1 which is 643. Looks like the market is going to retest the old high DOW 13,000 or the OEX 660. Will see. Again buy on pullback until it falls out of the channel to the downside.

2c

Turtlesoupbuy+1...but

either it bouces tomorrow or falls to 610ish (Fib 618) before a turn. Either way it is still downtrend until 635 is taken out to the upside. Tomorrow's numbers are 631, 628 and 624. The bias is more down, but then it depends very much on coming Employment number. The bulls have lost it since last Friday May30 so in case of doubt sell it.

2c

Not good

broke out of the lower channel, target 600ish. Tomorrow's numbers are 633, 629 and 623. A 10 point spread and WR7. This is also a turtlesoupbuy also. But other signals still pointing to a sell.

2c

OK so it broke to the down side

from the NR7. This is disappointing but the fact. The market started selling even before the ISM data was released. If you look at it closely the ISM data has improved although still indicates contraction but GDP data was revised to the upside. So inflation must still be the concern. But what can the market do about it. Sell till inflation comes down? At this point, it is not convincing that June will be a down month. There may be a few more days of selling but weekly data shows very oversold. Tomorrow's numbers are 637, 634 and 629.

2c

Inside NR7

Much to do about nothing day but it closed above pivot 638. Monday's numbers are 641,640 and 638. A three point spread. Again, a break out is expected next week. The bias is to the upside. Target 647ish is still in the card. It is expected to be accomplished within 3 days with stochastic pop. The weekly data shows signs of turning around to the up side.

2c

On its way to second target...

We got the steep rise today. A higher target is anticipated now. First 645 then perhaps higher. The upper resistance line is at 660 which is a long way to go. But today's action put the market back in short term up trend. There is a flurry of economic data tomorrow morning and is always interesting to see if the market will shrug off any bad news to continue its near term up trend. Tormorrow's numbers are 643, 638 and 634.

2c

All on board, ship shape....

Green to go and this is atypical of retesting before climbing higher. Opened near r1 635, fell to S1 629 and up to r1 again. It is classic. Now if you look at the 30 minute chart, the lower line of the bearish upward sloping channel was formed and two upper lines could be projected. It is clear that because of the angle of ascent, there is a much higher probability of achieving 639 than 645. It appears at this time that 639 or approx SPX 1400 is the top for this round. Unless there is a steep rise in the next two days. Time will tell. Tomorrow's numbers are 637, 633 and 630.

2c

Turtlesoupbuy+1

Beautiful, it closed above pivot 631. Tomorrow's numbers are 636, 632 and 629. It is expected that the market will go up from here to reach the forecasted targets, first 639 then perhaps 645. However, tomorrow we have Durable Goods number and the market probably will not go up in a straight line. This is the power of statistics while it was not obvious using regular charting techniques.

Good luck

2c

Weekend Update May2308

This is a bold attempt to do a forecast here. Assuming the mother of all short squeeze will happen on Tuesday. Then we have the lower line of the new downward channel. Using the projected upper line of the channel and Fib 618 retracement we have a new target of 645ish in about 5 days?

2c

Turtlesoupbuy....

Everything as anticipated, shorted when it fell past 635 s1 from a break out from the NR7. A turtlesoupbuy signal, reversion to the mean, price and volatility at extremes, foretell a very high probability of bouncing back to 639 which is Fib 382 and Fib EMA 89. Tuesday's numbers are 634, 631and 626.

2c

Range narrowing

It was an easy decision today, for as soon as it was rejected from pivot 639, shorts were initiated and closed out when there was a profit. Tomorrow's numbers are 639, 637 and 635. A 4 point spread and is an NR7. It should be easy then, go with the flow tomorrow, long above 639 and short below 635. At 10am tomorrow, there is the existing home sale and more than likely no good, therefore the bias is down. This finishes wave 5 within the down channel before heading back up. Although other indicators point to one more day of down slide, the closing number is more than 10 points from the forecasted value and this normally will trigger a reversion. In any case follow the pivot numbers for action.

2c

Wow...

Second forcast and then some was reached one day again. Two important supports 644 and 639 were broken. Tomorrow's numbers are 644, 639 and 630. Yes a wide spread and WR7 with pattern violation. A dead cat bounce is expected but not to exceed 639. All indicators point to more downside to come. This time the target is 630 as in the posted chart.

2c

Go ahead, make my day...

Ha, the forecasted target was reached in one day. Thanks to Warren Buffet, George Soros and of course the PPI. It was a no brainer day again. Initiated shorts at open and closed out by EOD. Now you have seen the power of Turtlesoupsell and WR7 signals and of course the self-fullfiling Fib ratios. What is going to happen next? The posted chart today is completely imaginery using past trading experience. First, tomorrow's numbers are 651, 647 and 642. Since it broke out of the bearish upward sloping channel to the downside, it will retrace to where it broke out from. A 382 Fib is 649ish and just above the pivot 647 a bit. If the market is really very bearish then a Fib 263 to the pivot 647. Either point should provide the information to define the upper channel line of the now downward sloping channel. Using the lower channel line and the Fib 100 mark will get us to the next target which is 638ish and this is also an important moving average number. Have fun....

PS this was also the Wolfe Waves formation with the target nailed exactly...see posted chart 2

2c

Turtlesoupsell and WR7

OK, first off, if you followed the pivot numbers, when it was above r1 655 and heading towards r2 658, you should be all ready to initiate a short. (ecxcept of course in the case of pattern violation). Closed it out at pivot 650 or s1 or lower channel. It was a healthy $300 per contract. Now we got a turtlesoupsell and an WR7. Tomorrow's numbers are 658, 654 and 650. You know it is trend exhaustion. Going back in time, we had a tutlesoupsell, WR7 on May2 and a sell off out of the channel 3 days later. Right now the market is in a stochastic pop situation, initiating longs are not wise. With a TSS, WR7 the possibilty of going past today's high of 659ish without a retracement is very slim. If the retracement is to occur, the target is between 618 and 786 Fib and that is approx. 642-644ish and again as noted before the weekly s1. See if the PPI tomorrow will push it down. The FIB EMA 233 so far is capping the advance. OEX is capped at 653ish so far.

2c

Weekend update May17 08

A lot of talk is about the VIX to VXV ratio these days. Basically, it it the SP500 one month to three month implied volatility ratio. Would it give us some insight into tops and bottoms? More studies are needed. But in the interim take note at the posted chart today...hmmm

2c

Still in uptrend but...

there should be a good retracement come next week. OEX still could not break out of Fib EMA 233 653ish. Many Japanese candlestick hangingmen occurring on indexes. It should be two good trades today if you follow the pivot. A short to 648 and a long to 652. Monday's numbers are 655, 650 and 647. From the low of May9 638 to the high of May16 653 is 15 points in six days. You can work out the retracement. A 2/3 retracement is 10 points from 653 equating to 643which is the weekly s1. Watch if 647 is broken to the downside next week. Although it is still possible to continue the advance to 655-657.

Have a good weekend

2c

A no brainer

Everything as planned...tomorrow's numbers are 655, 650 and 647. As an overall review, the OEX may be heading towards 675ish.

2c

Self fulfilling prophecy

So it was tame CPI coupled with NR7 (narrowing spread) to cause a break out of 645 to the up side. It was a race to 786 Fib and sold off afterwards. Two good trades, one long one short and was done for the day. It is risky to keep your position overnight. Now where do we go from here? The market was turned off multiple times from the Fib EMA 233 area. Price and volatility at opposite extremes again and that perhaps tiggered off the midday selling. However, the market has barely hooked onto the uptrend number of 648. As in the posted chart, if the market can rebound at the lower trend line of the up channel, there should be more to go till near term target of 655. But if it falls out of the channel, then the near term target will be 641. The upward sloping channel is bearish but it is heart breaking to see it breaking down with such a short channel. In any case, tomorrow's numbers are 650, 647 and 644. If the uptrend is to continue, it will have to close above 647.

2c

No break out today

It did not break out of 645. Tomorrow's numbers are 646, 644 and 641. An NR7 and it can breakout either way. Unless the CPI tomorrow is extremely tame, the bias is down. For the simple fact that the Fed is near the end of an interest rate cut cycle. A bad CPI will give them reason to do so. In addition, we are still in short term down trend unless 648 is taken out to the up side. Will see.

2c

A high chance of breaking out...

It just stopped at the upper channel 645. It will depend on retail sale number tomorrow. Very similar to April 16 for comparison but it has to take out 648 to regain up trend. One for the bulls today.
Tomorrow's numbers are 648, 643 and 640.

2c

So the selling continues...

Volatility and price at opposite extremes and range narrowing. Monday's numbers are 642, 640 and 637. As you can see in today's posted chart, s1, r1 define the channel and it may be range bound until it breaks out. However, we are still in sell zone until 645 is taken out.

2c

Don't be fooled...more selling to come

Tomorrow's numbers are 647, 643 and 641. Short it when it goes to r1.

2c

The art of probability

Life is all about probabilities. OK, the pattern was correctly identified, now what. Short on rallies time and tomorrow's numbers are 650, 646 and 637 and one possible target is 632.

2c

Alert

Although the target of the reverse H&S has it to 675ish. There is something disturbing. The statistical forecasted value is very close to the lower band (less than 2 points) and this is equivalent to the rising wedge scenario. The last time it happened was the week of Oct8 last year and you know what happened shortly after. It is almost topping out at 655 which is the Fib EMA 233. In other words it is rising too much too fast. Not really sure CSCO or DIS could do anything. OK today is a funny day. Early in the day it completed the 15 minutes H&S target to 645ish and powered ahead and of course again stopped at 655. Tomorrow's numbers are 657, 651 and 647. A 10 point spread, it is a wide range. Time will tell.

2c

Uptrend not broken yet...

Though it closed near s1. Until 648 is violated to the downside we are still in uptrend. Tomorrow's numbers are 654, 651, 648. In retrospect, if you bought OEX 610 May call on April 16 when the trend reversed and kept it, it had gone from 2k to 4.5k per contract.

2c

Week update -May02- Going forward

Upon more reflection, the market is very bullish. Using channels, ab=cd, Fibs 786 and inverse H&S, 675 is a possible target which is approximately SPX 1450.

2c

A good short

History does repeat itself. With good employment numbers, any rally would be shorted, because it means no more rate cuts? OK, whenever it goes to r1-r2 >656, short till the pivot and review. It did not break the pivot 648, then closed out. It looks like more upside to come. Monday's numbers are 657, 654, 651. Will do a weekend update later.

Have a good weekend.

2c

What the...

as long as it has not broken the lower channel, yesterday's forecast was out the door. As a matter of fact you can see that the rally accelerated when it was past pivot 644. OK, tomorrow's numbers are 656, 648 and 644. A 12 point spread and you should know what this is. Yes a WR7 and turtlesoup+1 too. As in the posted chart today an upward sloping bearish channel. The least it should do is to fall back to 645ish. At least 618 if not 786 if you know what I mean.

2c

Not good for the bulls..

First 650 was reached intraday and free fall from there to touch the all important 640-641 and closed below pivot. This is a turtlesoupsell signal again. Tomorrow's numbers are 647, 644 and 637. The logical theme of thing would be bouncing up to 644 to be met with selling or fall to 637 right away. 634 is the first target.

good luck

2c

No surprise....

a four point spread again for tomorrow and no break out yet before FOMC. Tomorrow's numbers are 645, 643 ans 641. If it breaks below 640 the uptrend is in trouble or at least tested. If it breaks up above 645 we will be on our way to 655. Contrary to a lot of beliefs playing the index is much safer than playing individual stock. You can never be too wrong and if you are wrong you can easily correct it for the index just oscillates and comes back to you. Today we knew it would be range bound from 642-646 and so it did, give and take a few. Case in point just look at the chart posted today, you will find 786 all the time and channelling it is a beauty. The money is a sure win. You cannot be wrong if you follow what the market tells you. If you play individual stocks than you have to worry about sector, rumours, earnings etc etc and on and on and never ends
2c

Much to do about nothing day

Closed slightly above pivot, normally a short would have been opened but it is walking the up band and FOMC Wednesday. Tomorrow's numbers are 646, 645 and 642. A 4 point spread, yes an NR7. A break out is not anticipated before FOMC decision. May be more of the same tomorrow.

good luck

2c

Just Lovely

Down to 78 Fib, retested break out point and up to 78 Fib. Could not be more predictable. A good day indeed. Now the up channel is defined. Near term target is 168 Fib and that will take us to 655ish. Let count another 5 waves inside the channel and expect it to fall out to the down side. However, this is walking the band up the trend. Have a great weekend. Monday's numbers are 649, 643 and 641.

2c

Pattern violation

Was expecting a 10 point move to the downside and it turned out a 10 point move to the upside. Crazy market which turns on a dime. Lucky all shorts were closed out at s1 635ish this morning with small gains and reshorted at EOD and closed out by the close. Let's talk about what is going to happen here. First, tomorrow's numbers are 649, 642 and 636. Upon more reflection, the move up today could have been forecasted. As in the chart posted today, there was a slightly downward sloping bullish channel and it is only a matter of time that it would break out to the the upside especially when the medium term uptrend is still intact. The market is looking for any excuse to rally. Now normally inside a channel it cooks up to 5 waves and breaks out. But it has to retest where it broke out from. It normally conforms to Fib ratio. After the retest, expect wave 3 to shoot up. This is in anticipation of the well talked about inverse H$S. Today is very much like Sept 17/18 last year.

2c

Like April 7

today it is. Although closed slightly above pivot, the bias is for further down. Weekly is very overbought. Tomorrow's numbers are 640, 638 and 635. Just have to be patient. AAPL and AMZN down big time AH, may be tomorrow is the day of recognition.

2c

Sell on rallies time

As expected we had a range narrowing and broke out to the down side. Now the near term down trend is casted is stone and a bold forecast would be 5 more days of selling, albeit very good news to break the down trend. There may be a sense of no interest rate cut come end of April looming. Inflation is getting out of hand with 120 oil. An R3 was sighted yesterday. Tomorrow's numbers are 639, 636 and 633. The second target of 624ish may be achievable now.

2c

NR7

Last Friday's OEX May 645 puts were realised with a 25% profit. Tuesday's numbers are 642,639,and 637. A 5 point spread coming from a 13 point spread. The sequence of events are turtlesoupsell, WR5 and NR7. Another break out is in the work, this time the bias is to the down side. Remember last Friday's call was of an aggressive nature with no confirmation. Now the sell signal is getting stronger. Today is like April 4. Although closed above pivot, but is very overbought. The upside is limited without a retrace. Could also go sideways for a few days.

2c

A very simple road map for the long term investors

The volatility chart posted today is simple and self explanatory. If you are not an option player and are longer term investors the road map is a very useful tool. As Warren Buffet used to say "The active players are handing their money to the patience". What is going to happen next?

Your guess is correct....

2c

Weekend update...Apr1808

A parabolic upward sloping bearish channel inside another bigger upward sloping bearish channel. Daily and weekly very overbought and today is similar to Feb27, Mar24 and Apr3rd. A .38 Fib retrace will take us to 630 which is also the weekly pivot if the uptrend is to continue. The next target is 624 which is the .68 retrace and lower line of the bigger channel. It is the belief that a pull back is needed at the neckline of the inverse H&S before further advance.

2c

Turtlesoupsell.......

The forecast of 633 was just too timid, it blown right through it. Yesterday OEX May 631 call was so thinly traded and today everybody rushed in. This is the herd mentality and to trade options if you have to beat the herd. As a sidebar, getting in onto POT May 195 calls yesterday when everybody was dumping them paid off today. Now where do we go from here. Turtlesoup again and the numbers for Monday are 646, 638 and 633. It is a 13 point spread. Not WR7 but WR5 and price and volatility at extremes. You probably guess what's going to happen next week. Again, nobody wants OEX May 645 puts. It is very lonely at the top.....If it goes, it should arrive at the lower channel 633. A 7 point drop from today's close 640, could produce 3-4 bucks and at 14-15 a shot, the estimation is very conservatiely 20% profit...Mind you this call is very aggressive, and no confirmation yet... Will post weekend update later..

2c

Continue up...

Don't argue with the market. It closed above pivot 624 and should continue up for at least one to two more days. Near term target is 633ish. Yesterday's action has put the market back in up trend. Sometimes just wonder if PPT (plunge protect team) really exits. It almost always comes out at the critical moment. Now everyone is talking about this inverse H&S that will lead us to new high. One day at a time .....right now the buy signal is on...tomorrow's numbers are 631, 628 and 625.

2c

Food for thought

Tomorrow's numbers are 631, 624 and 620. Look at the posted chart today. EW one more time, any comments? If it goes up from here the corrective b or wave2 of new 5 waves is awful short...

2c

A small break out

So it closed above pivot 612. Tomorrow's numbers are 617, 614 and 612. Although, INTC earnings may give the market another pop, but we have CPI, Housing starts, Crude inventories tomorrow and then a whole list of banks and brokers reporting. The selling sentiment has not peaked to get a sustainable rally. There is this weird feeling that there may just be more downside to come. Time will tell.

2c

Break out...

A WR7 followed by an NR7... tomorrow's numbers are 614, 612 and 610. It is narrowing. Although still in near term down trend but because of the oversold condition the bias is to the up side for at least one day. The target is still 620ish.

Good luck

2c

Not proud....

should have kept the first instinct that it fell out of the rising wedge and followed through. Yesterday was a retest (price action kind of clouded the issue, although it was 50-50 chance for up trend since other indicators were not confirming).Now it has reached the second target of 616ish. Is it not amazing? Upon more reflection, since it has completed Fib 78 and arrived at lower channel, the anticipation was for a rebound. (DIA and QQQQ have just about filled the gaps). Monday's numbers are 624, 619 and 610. A WR7 which indicates exhaustion (in Selling). You can also see the smaller downward sloping channel within the bigger upward sloping channel. The upper line of the small channel is 620ish and perhaps a rebound to that level early next week. Whether it rises out of the small channel to retest the upper line of the bigger channel or continue its fall, only time will tell. Right now, the bias is continual its decent to the third target of 595ish.This number is the lower line of the weekly upward sloping channel (bearish) and is the fib 78 retrace of the whole rise from Mar low. Furthermore today it closed below the weekly pivot of 625. The market is rolling over.

2c

How about that...

From a confirmed sell to a buy in one day. Looks like the market has firm support at 625ish. Today it closed above pivot 627 and set to go up from here, unless of course bad earnings again. Just out of curiosity to pull out a 10 year chart and seems like strong support here. No wonder the violent bounce. Tomorrow's numbers are 638, 629 and 625.

2c

Fallen out of the wedge

The initial forecasted target 625 was reached today. It was an obvious short when it could not surpass pivot 631. Tomorrow's numbers are 630, 627 and 623. Also, there are many indicators that point to the next target of 616ish. First, today is a confirmed sell. The volatility is now in line with the price action. Meaning, investors are in realization of the fact that there are going to be a lot more hurt in earnings come next few weeks. If you look at DIA or QQQQ there is a gap they have to fill. This is inline with OEX falling to 616ish before reversing. As you can see this is where the Fib 78 line intersects the lower channel. In the past few days there were many tell tale signs, WR7, NR7, turtlesoupsell and common sense says if the market does not go up it has to come down. It cannot stay put all the time. Bradley model is pretty accurate these days. April 7 was turn date and the next turn date is Apr27 and that pretty much says all of the earning season time frame. Further, it kind of projects the low of Mar to be revisited. It could well be, for as you can see the entire upward sloping channel is bearish and at some point, it could fall out of the channel to reach the March low, scary, that means, caution is advised for bulls. Just as everyone is talking bullish, you may find the rug pulled out underneath you.

2c

Conflicting signals...

Price action says further down but volatility is not confirming it. This is a very difficult trading environment. However, selling sentiment did show up today and OEX did not even close above S1, so the anticipation is still further down. After hours, UPS warned and slashed profit forecast. If anything it is going to be a very slow bleed. Bulls believe the bottom is in and are supporting the market. Others believe this is the start of another cycle down. Tomorrow's numbers are 633, 631 and 628. An NR7 again. Break out one way or the other and the bias is down.

2c

It has fallen out of the first rising wedge and

see if it will fall out of the second rising wedge and 625 should be the target if the up trend is to continue as shown in the posted chart today. After hour ALcoa reported loosing 50% of profits and AMD warned. There were also several reported sightings of R3. Tomorrow's numbers are 639, 636 and 631.

2c

Weekend Update ... A rising wedge?

Therefore the first target is 625ish and the second target if it falls out of the wedge is the lower channel at 615ish. Conservatively, the tail of the doji was not included to arrive at 615. This makes more sense with the weekly numbers of 645, 627 and 616.

2c

Strange...

The numbers for Monday are exactly the same as today's, 637, 633 and 629. You can see it dropped to s1 and rallied back to r1 only to close right back at pivot. 3 dojis in a row and the sell signal is getting stronger. Target is still 620-625ish. Although, there is still a small possibility of an uptick. The market ignores all bad news. 80,000 job loss didn't matter. In recession, there will be increasing magnitude of job loss and until at such time that 200k, 300k job loss hitting consumer spending then perhaps the market will wake up.

2c

On track....

Today it tried to retest the new high but could not surpass it. It resembles Sept5 of last year. An intermediate trend change but has to work off the OB before climbing higher. Conservatively, the near term target is 625 and tomorrow's numbers are 637, 633 and 629. We have turtlesoupsell and turtlesoup+1 signals two days in a row. It is coming folks.

2c

No surprise...

B2 Bomber Ben kind of admitted recession by using contraction instead of the "R" word. All in all, a gloom and doom picture of the economy. Today it traded above pivot most of the time. Shorting it was patience testing. Though eod selling was to be expected. At this junction, a couple of more days of rise is to be anticipated till unemployment Friday. Especially in light of the after hour RIMM good earning report. If you look at the chart posted today you will see another upward sloping bearish channel and the estimate is downtrend starting Friday or next week. This will probably coincide with the earning season. If any of the prophetic guess of another lower leg coming, this is judgement time. Tomorrow's numbers are 638, 634 and 630. Play the numbers and you will not get hurt.

2c

Another pattern violation...only in bear market

Talk about intervention to the extremes..right out of the gate it was a buy and now above 619 the intermediate trend is up. However, every time you have buying sentiment to the peak, a retrace will follow, more than likely by eod tomorrow. The next set of numbers are 642, 629 and 622. Recognise the range change? yes a WR7 and a turtlesoupsell....in addition, B2 Bomber Ben is talking tomorrow... but as long as 622 holds we are up trend....(by the way, ISM data is below 50, we are in recession, the market seems to take the slight improvement from last month as rallying fuel on top of the billions of write off from UBS)..the market is ignoring bad news now...

2c

Too much government intervention?

They used your tax dollars to bail you out and now they what a say in running your household....I8R...ok today is the fourth day from fall and naturally we see some signs of reversal. But we are still in shorting territory, unless OEX closes above 619. Tomorrow's numbers are 617, 614 and 610. Tomorrow ISM data will probably steer the market one way or the other. Forecasted values for both ends are 604 and 628.

2c

Weekend Update...A week in review

As you can see there was no doubt using pivot numbers to short for the last three days. You can short the market from 628 to 610 for approx 900 dollars per OEX option contract or day trade it for more. So what is going to happen come Monday? Downward sloping channels are bullish...eventually (with some exceptions) More than likely, it will bounce to 613ish and meet with selling again to s1 607. There may be a couple more days of selling ahead.

2c

Again, it is so predictable...

Up in the morning and down at close. Picture perfect money making scenario. It failed the pivot 618 and shorted to s1 612 and below. A piece of cake. Now it closed below s1. No matter what others are saying and hoping, below 615, it is down trend. Monday's numbers are 617, 613 and 607. This is getting closer to the fib target of 600. Next week is ISM data which will be bad and if recession is confirmed, getting to the target will be accelerated. In order for the market to reverse again it has to overcome 613, 617 and 620. Will print weekend updates when more time is available later.

Good luck folks

2c

The bulls caved in......

Yesterday the bulls were fighting tooth and nail to hold 620, and today they gave up. It was a pleasure to short every time it failed the pivot of 623. At the end of the day support s1 619 could not hold any longer. Now it is a short on rallies time until 600ish as indicated in the chart using basic channelling and fib ratios. Counting yesterday as the first day of closing below pivot, it should have one to two more days of selling and that should bring us to April before any meaningful rally. Actually this pull back should be quite obvious for OIH, Nasdaq and 3 horsemen are all topped out. It was kind of mind boggling to see futures way up this morning. You would have thought they know what they are doing. Tomorrow's numbers are 621, 618 and 612. Based on today's closing between s1 and s2, there may be a pop in the morning and you know what is going to happen then, especially on a Friday.

2c

Well sentiment has changed..

Down it goes as expected. It closed below pivot 627 but 620 seems to provide support. As long as 620 is not broken to the down side the bulls still have a chance. Today is quite like Jan29. Normally, leaving shorts overnight is a sure thing especially tomorrow we have GDP which is bound to be bad. But then again the market can take a bad GDP and turn it into meaning more rate cut. Tomorrow's numbers are 626, 623 and 619. If 620 is not broken to the down side, the market can have another pop before it really retraces. Will see.

2c

The market should come down soon...

It seems that the bulls are stubborn but on the other hand it is always the late comers that will get hurt. Tomorrow's numbers are 631, 627 and 624. You can see the numbers narrowing and is an NR7. So break out is imminent. Which way will it break out? After close to 1000 Dow point rise, your best guess. In addition, we have Durable Orders and New Home Sales for tomorrow. A check or comparison to previous chart patterns, down drift is at hand. It will be very surprise to see continual upward movement albeit very good news.

2c

More crooks...

Imagine you had inside information, bought BSC at 2 dollars and now a new deal said it is at 10....the shorts were slaughtered overnight....that is why playing the index is much safer. Ok, because of this stupid news, it took the upside route. But no sweat, what comes up must come down. May be just 24 hours delay... the following chart is self-explanatory. It retested from where it broke out from and using fib arc and channelling, it should fall back to 615 .....tormorrow's numbers are 633, 627 and 622.

2c

Weekend Update... there can only be two choices

either it runs all the way up to 636 and finishes off a 1.0 retracement from Feb27 or falls back to reality to 594ish. Right now it seems the later is of higher probability. First, upward sloping channel is bearish and second it has gone up more than 10 points from the forecasted value of 605 and it has to come back to mama....

2c

Don't you just love this market...

The DOW is up and down 300 points daily! In any case, it closed above pivot 610 and above r1 617. You probably know what is going to happen come Monday...Price level at extreme but volatility is not...hmm, is that because the option players are not buying this? Today the closing price is right at the line where all attempts to go above have been clubbered since last October. This is not to say it will not succeed this time. Certainly there seems to be market rotation from metals/commodity plays to finance. Are we sure all sublime problems are behind us? If it is only just one or two investment banks go belly up then the Fed is doing things too heavy handed... Jim Rogers has a point that the Fed has overstepped. They should be more concerned about a strong dollar and the economy than bailing out investment bankers. Monday's numbers are 626, 615 and 609. Will not be surprised to see a pull back to 610.

2c

This is no surprise

Pull back it did. What a day for a short! There is more to come. It is not good that it failed the test for 620ish reistance line and closed below pivot 610 today. 598 is a near term target and if it closes below 598 tomorrow, the market has not found a bottom yet. Tomorrow's numbers are 616, 610, 598.

2c

Wow

It has gone from OS to OB in on day. Technically, it has changed the near term trend to up. Though more upside is to be expected, the buying sentiment peaked today. It closed near the long term trend line 620ish. It is not surprising to see a retrace tomorrow. The numbers are 627, 610 and 602.

2c

Signs of rebound

Although it closed below pivot 599, but price and volatility at extremes. It is a turtlesoup buy following a WR7. Tomorrow's numbers are 600, 592 and 585. It will be encouraging if it can close above 600. This is providing the Fed cut rate by a full 100 basis points and there is no more bad news.

2c

Weekend Updates - all eyes on the Fed

See if it can break out of 605, the downward sloping channel is bullish.

2c

They are all crooks.....

Bear Stern holding off of problems....right off the gate 605 pivot was violated and there was no doubt for shorts, fell into the 598 and s1-s2 zone and short coverings at the close to below pivot 605. It is now back to the sell zone. It looks like the market is pricing in a disappointment for the Fed cut next week. If that is the case, we have not seen the bottom yet. Monday's numbers are 608, 599 and 587. It looks like an up to sideway day on Monday and if the Fed disapoints on Tuesday then the sellings will resume and it is not going to be pretty.

Good luck

2c

Trading the King's Crown

Amazing technicals....just look at where the buy point was today...exactly at the right shoulder and herds of buyers. A reverse H&S is developing if 616 is broken to the upside...long long and long....But remember, it could fail at the neckline too!! However, much volatility is ahead. Today it closed below pivot 610 and expect some down drafts tomorrow. It will be a down open tomorrow morning and is a Friday too. Tomorrow's numbers are 615, 605 and 598.

2c

Not much to say

so it traded between r1 618 and pvt 604. You could have shorted it at r1 and closed out at pivot by EOD. Still uptrend with 50% retracement today. Tomorrow's numbers are 614, 610 and 602. There is a possibility of a reverse H&S developing and will see how it unfold.

2c

WOW....

Rebound was expected but not to this extend. The forecasted value 604 was realised in the first 15 minutes. Lucky all shorts were closed out last night. But what to do if you have no positions? No sweats. Just wait for the pattern to develope. For every gap up because of short coverings there is a retrace. As you can see longs were initiated when it broke out of the downward sloping bullish channel to the upside. The daily low was at r1 595, very bullish. It was a W formation and fib extension 1.68 was minimum. There should be more upside but after a 400 DOW point day it is only logical to close out all longs. Don't be agreed or you will give it all back. Tomorrow's numbers are 618, 604 and 597. If the uptrend is to continue, the low of the day should not be lower than 604 and should close near 618 r1, otherwise it is a one day wonder. The near term target conservatively should be 620ish.

2c

History repeats itself...

As you can see in the chart, shorts were initiated when it failed to surpass pivot of 598 and were closed at S1 591. Shorts were initiated again when it broke to the downside from the upward sloping bearish channel,closed at 588. Why 588? that is the weekly S1. Again, the rest of the day was left to the amateurs. Tomorrow's numbers are 595, 592 and 586. Selling pressure peaked, price and volatility at extremes, sitting at weekly support and too far off from forecasted value of 604, a rebound is warranted for tomorrow.
(ps in the chart 588 is weekly s1 not pvt.too lazy to redo chart)
2c

Weekend Update - Dow Waves - part II

To continue last weekend's update, just could not help locating a possible target for the DOW. The total down move of wave1 to wave3
was 1454+2135=3589 points and 0.38 of that is 1363 down points for wave5 from Feb27 of 12756 high. This leads us to DOW 11393. Using Fib arc from 17Jul06, they amazingly conincide.This is the first target for DOW and is also 0.78 retrace from rise of 17Jul06. This is only the first target, it can go lower.

2c

Anatomy of a day trade

We knew today's numbers were 609, 605 and 597 and we did not have a position going into today. All we knew was down market. OK, it gapped down to S1 (597) due to bad employment numbers. Patience paid off when it reversed and touched pivot (605). Shorts were initiated then closed when it reached S1(597) again for approx 7 points. (= 3.5 bucks). Then there was the upward sloping bearish channel. When it broke the upward sloping channel to the down side, shorts were initiated again. This section we were dealing with S1 (597)to S2 (584). Normally it ends somewhere in between the two. You can use channelling to govern the exit. When it broke out of the bullish downward sloping channel to the up side, shorts were closed. Another 5 points or 2.5 bucks. You do not need fancy charts, just pivot numbers and simple straight lines to make a buck. In the real world, you do not get the 7 bucks exactly. Allow for slippage to aim at 70% of 7 bucks = approx 5 dollars is not bad at all. Could you play the upmoves, yes, but it would be against main trend and you would be vulnerable to severe down drafts. Anyways, more sellings to come. Monday's numbers are 604, 598, 591. Since you see the pivot going lower and lower daily, it does not take a genius to recognise a down trend.

2c

Not good...

so much bad news everyday and as soon as it fell below pivot 613 at open going long was out of the question, especially yesterday's buying sentiment was little. Now, the market better reverses in the next two days else the weekend update on ewave is about to happen. Wave5 to retest the Jan lows. Tomorrow's number 610, 605 and 597. Go by the pivot numbers and you will not get hurt.

2c

It's a buy....

Right out of the gate it traded to r2 (618ish) and theorectically a pullback was expected with or without the stupid AMBK news which only amplified it. But the pivot (608ish) held and onwards back to close near r1 (615). Tomorrow's numbers are 619, 613 and 608. Not starting a strong up trend since buying sentiment is miniscule, but still a buy until proven otherwise. Near term target is 623 then 630.

2c

How many times can you beat a dead horse?

Citigroup again and is it not old news? Intc is not supposed to be a market mover anymore. Anyways, it was a weak buy and the bears had it again but what an amazing reversal. DIA has a turtle soup buy signal today. Every day the signal is stronger but not confirmed yet. All gurus are pointing to Friday as possible buy day. Today, it closed at about pivot. Tomorrow's numbers are 615, 609 and 605. All the market has to do tomorrow is to close at 615 at a minimum and then confirmed buy signal is out.

2c

Well

Today's S1 (607) has not been broken. Tomorrow's numbers are 616, 612 and 610. It is an inside day and NR7. There are signs of bouncing. ISM data was bad but better than expected. If it were not Warren Buffet's mouthing off the economy, it would have reversed earlier in the day. OK this is an early buy but true strength will not come by until it closes above 624. So ewave is just that and will see how it unfolds. Weekend's comment was mistakenly deleted, and apology to the commenter.

2c

Weekend Update - Dow Waves

Let's revisit waves again. Dow is being used for OEX charts are screwed up. OK.

Wave 1 - 5 polywaves - Oct11 to Nov27 - 1454 points down
Wave 2 - 3 abc corrective waves - Nov27 to Dec11 - 1036 points up
Wave 3 - 5 polywaves - Dec11 to Jan22 - 2135 points down
Wave 4 - Triangle abcde 5 waves - Jan22 to Feb28 - trianlge often occurs in wave 4 and according to Elliot it has got to be no more than 5 waves. The waves are progressively smaller than the previous ones and wave e can protrude a bit. The triangle has already been broken out and completed. The target of wave e is minimum 0.75 of the widest one which is wave b in the triangle and the target should have been 12996, not quite reached but EMA 89 is the limiting band as you can see. So wave 4 was 1111 points up.
Wave 5 - Feb28 - can be a mono or poly wave but has already started and at this point the low of Jan22 is expected to be retested. It should be shorter than wave 3 but a thousand points down is not surprising.

Calling on all ewavers to comment

2c

Plain simple

As expected AIG was up to no good with derivatives and faulty accounting practices without marking to market. Voila, the market sold off and right off the start it was below S1(627). Shorts were initiated and closed out by EOD. Tomorrow's numbers are 624, 618 and 607 and more sellings are expected.

good luck

2c

Pivot is king...

Recalled we said position for shorts yesterday. Today, it dropped at open because of lousy GDP. But no sweats, as soon as it fell below 635 pivot, shorts were initiated and they were closed out at
about s1 (631). The rest of the day was left to the amateurs. Since it closed below s1 today, more sellings are expected tomorrow. Follow the pivots and you will never get hurt. Unlike others, we do not have to straddle anything nor do we have to play market both ways for we know what we are doing with powerful statistical analyses that are into the futures. Remember we have not lost one single trade so far. Today is the last day chart is posted. From now on use your imagination. Tomorrow's numbers are 634, 631 and 627. You can see this is an NR7. However, since we are sitting on the confluence of averages, it can still break out either side. The bias though is down.

2c

Are'nt we having fun..

As expected yesterday's surpassing of r1 by the close triggered off a sell-off in the morning. This was also because of the bad durable goods numbers. Then B2 Bomber Ben spoke and became Helicopter Ben again. While he spoke, OEX pivot 633 held and you can see from the chart, longs were fired off. They were closed at 638ish level, having three tries to break it without success. This is also the all important area. Tomorrow's numbers are 639, 635 and 631. It is at the overbought area, although there should theorectically more room to go but scaling out of longs and position for shorts are in order.

2c