Friday, April 18, 2008

Turtlesoupsell.......

The forecast of 633 was just too timid, it blown right through it. Yesterday OEX May 631 call was so thinly traded and today everybody rushed in. This is the herd mentality and to trade options if you have to beat the herd. As a sidebar, getting in onto POT May 195 calls yesterday when everybody was dumping them paid off today. Now where do we go from here. Turtlesoup again and the numbers for Monday are 646, 638 and 633. It is a 13 point spread. Not WR7 but WR5 and price and volatility at extremes. You probably guess what's going to happen next week. Again, nobody wants OEX May 645 puts. It is very lonely at the top.....If it goes, it should arrive at the lower channel 633. A 7 point drop from today's close 640, could produce 3-4 bucks and at 14-15 a shot, the estimation is very conservatiely 20% profit...Mind you this call is very aggressive, and no confirmation yet... Will post weekend update later..

2c

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