If you bought puts on Dec26, your money has already doubled in 5 days. This is the beauty of OEX options. OK, where do we go from here? Fundamentally, we have political turmoil in Pakistan that sparked crude oil to $100 per barrel. ISM reading below 50 confirms a recession. FOMC minutes did not save the day. The best the market can hope for now is another rate cut but that would not do any good to inflation. Technically, the selling sentiment has almost reached the turning point but not yet. Conservatively, one to two more days, and would depend on the Friday's unemployment data. Tomorrow's numbers are 685, 679 and 670. This is a wide ranging day prediction but it has to have a strong close for a trend change. Dec11 and Dec26 highs mark the two tops and they are lower highs. There is no change of trend signal since Dec11. So go figure. It seems like an inverted Bradley for 2008 at this point.
http://www.amanita.at/i/bradley/bradley2008.GIF
Good luck
2c
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