Monday or Tuesday latest from cycle forecast. A conservative target will be 635ish and ideally should be the upper channel around 650ish. Monday's numbers are 619, 615 and 610. On more reflection, the last up and down legs did not qualify for an ABC corrective wave because of the severity of the last leg down. If that is the case, then the last leg is the 2wave and we could be surprise to see a 3wave up this time. Any EW guy out there?
2c
4 comments:
hi 2, I took a look at the chart today, and I think we are at wave B down of the 4th wave. the natural direction is to go marginally lower than the 1/23th low, then go higher for wave C. If we go higher from here and we should surpass the 2/1 high. then we mess up the wave count, and we are still in wave 3 down. I consider this less possible, but it is a distinct possibility, because we turned from 618 retracement,which is a ambush trade on the daily.
In any case, I see we are still in the down trend. re-test the low is a given, and we probably go lower for wave 5 to complete the down trend.
just my 2cents.
p
P,
take a look at my post for wave count and see if we are talking the same
3c
no. the peak for spx 1576 (Oct11), wave 1 should be Oct 22 (spx 1500). Wave 2 peak is Oct31 (1550). Then the entire down move from oct 31 to Jan 23 is the wave 3. Within the wave 3, you may subdivide as you described. even that, the next move is wave 5 down to complete your wave count. At least to re-test the low to form a truncated wave 5 as your count indicated. My feel is that Jan 23 is the end of wave 3. We had A wave of 4, and now is B to re-test the low or make a marginal low, then C wave up. Then everyone feels we re-test the low, and buy in the market. Then comes wave 5 down lower.
From low to low, it needs 6 weeks (45 calender days). it's too soon to expect the bottom.
that's my count. it only works when it works.
p
Ok P,
I have updated my final wave count if you must go back to Oct. Take a look.
2c
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