Not good for the bulls..

First 650 was reached intraday and free fall from there to touch the all important 640-641 and closed below pivot. This is a turtlesoupsell signal again. Tomorrow's numbers are 647, 644 and 637. The logical theme of thing would be bouncing up to 644 to be met with selling or fall to 637 right away. 634 is the first target.

good luck

2c

No surprise....

a four point spread again for tomorrow and no break out yet before FOMC. Tomorrow's numbers are 645, 643 ans 641. If it breaks below 640 the uptrend is in trouble or at least tested. If it breaks up above 645 we will be on our way to 655. Contrary to a lot of beliefs playing the index is much safer than playing individual stock. You can never be too wrong and if you are wrong you can easily correct it for the index just oscillates and comes back to you. Today we knew it would be range bound from 642-646 and so it did, give and take a few. Case in point just look at the chart posted today, you will find 786 all the time and channelling it is a beauty. The money is a sure win. You cannot be wrong if you follow what the market tells you. If you play individual stocks than you have to worry about sector, rumours, earnings etc etc and on and on and never ends
2c

Much to do about nothing day

Closed slightly above pivot, normally a short would have been opened but it is walking the up band and FOMC Wednesday. Tomorrow's numbers are 646, 645 and 642. A 4 point spread, yes an NR7. A break out is not anticipated before FOMC decision. May be more of the same tomorrow.

good luck

2c

Just Lovely

Down to 78 Fib, retested break out point and up to 78 Fib. Could not be more predictable. A good day indeed. Now the up channel is defined. Near term target is 168 Fib and that will take us to 655ish. Let count another 5 waves inside the channel and expect it to fall out to the down side. However, this is walking the band up the trend. Have a great weekend. Monday's numbers are 649, 643 and 641.

2c

Pattern violation

Was expecting a 10 point move to the downside and it turned out a 10 point move to the upside. Crazy market which turns on a dime. Lucky all shorts were closed out at s1 635ish this morning with small gains and reshorted at EOD and closed out by the close. Let's talk about what is going to happen here. First, tomorrow's numbers are 649, 642 and 636. Upon more reflection, the move up today could have been forecasted. As in the chart posted today, there was a slightly downward sloping bullish channel and it is only a matter of time that it would break out to the the upside especially when the medium term uptrend is still intact. The market is looking for any excuse to rally. Now normally inside a channel it cooks up to 5 waves and breaks out. But it has to retest where it broke out from. It normally conforms to Fib ratio. After the retest, expect wave 3 to shoot up. This is in anticipation of the well talked about inverse H$S. Today is very much like Sept 17/18 last year.

2c

Like April 7

today it is. Although closed slightly above pivot, the bias is for further down. Weekly is very overbought. Tomorrow's numbers are 640, 638 and 635. Just have to be patient. AAPL and AMZN down big time AH, may be tomorrow is the day of recognition.

2c

Sell on rallies time

As expected we had a range narrowing and broke out to the down side. Now the near term down trend is casted is stone and a bold forecast would be 5 more days of selling, albeit very good news to break the down trend. There may be a sense of no interest rate cut come end of April looming. Inflation is getting out of hand with 120 oil. An R3 was sighted yesterday. Tomorrow's numbers are 639, 636 and 633. The second target of 624ish may be achievable now.

2c

NR7

Last Friday's OEX May 645 puts were realised with a 25% profit. Tuesday's numbers are 642,639,and 637. A 5 point spread coming from a 13 point spread. The sequence of events are turtlesoupsell, WR5 and NR7. Another break out is in the work, this time the bias is to the down side. Remember last Friday's call was of an aggressive nature with no confirmation. Now the sell signal is getting stronger. Today is like April 4. Although closed above pivot, but is very overbought. The upside is limited without a retrace. Could also go sideways for a few days.

2c

A very simple road map for the long term investors

The volatility chart posted today is simple and self explanatory. If you are not an option player and are longer term investors the road map is a very useful tool. As Warren Buffet used to say "The active players are handing their money to the patience". What is going to happen next?

Your guess is correct....

2c

Weekend update...Apr1808

A parabolic upward sloping bearish channel inside another bigger upward sloping bearish channel. Daily and weekly very overbought and today is similar to Feb27, Mar24 and Apr3rd. A .38 Fib retrace will take us to 630 which is also the weekly pivot if the uptrend is to continue. The next target is 624 which is the .68 retrace and lower line of the bigger channel. It is the belief that a pull back is needed at the neckline of the inverse H&S before further advance.

2c

Turtlesoupsell.......

The forecast of 633 was just too timid, it blown right through it. Yesterday OEX May 631 call was so thinly traded and today everybody rushed in. This is the herd mentality and to trade options if you have to beat the herd. As a sidebar, getting in onto POT May 195 calls yesterday when everybody was dumping them paid off today. Now where do we go from here. Turtlesoup again and the numbers for Monday are 646, 638 and 633. It is a 13 point spread. Not WR7 but WR5 and price and volatility at extremes. You probably guess what's going to happen next week. Again, nobody wants OEX May 645 puts. It is very lonely at the top.....If it goes, it should arrive at the lower channel 633. A 7 point drop from today's close 640, could produce 3-4 bucks and at 14-15 a shot, the estimation is very conservatiely 20% profit...Mind you this call is very aggressive, and no confirmation yet... Will post weekend update later..

2c

Continue up...

Don't argue with the market. It closed above pivot 624 and should continue up for at least one to two more days. Near term target is 633ish. Yesterday's action has put the market back in up trend. Sometimes just wonder if PPT (plunge protect team) really exits. It almost always comes out at the critical moment. Now everyone is talking about this inverse H&S that will lead us to new high. One day at a time .....right now the buy signal is on...tomorrow's numbers are 631, 628 and 625.

2c

Food for thought

Tomorrow's numbers are 631, 624 and 620. Look at the posted chart today. EW one more time, any comments? If it goes up from here the corrective b or wave2 of new 5 waves is awful short...

2c

A small break out

So it closed above pivot 612. Tomorrow's numbers are 617, 614 and 612. Although, INTC earnings may give the market another pop, but we have CPI, Housing starts, Crude inventories tomorrow and then a whole list of banks and brokers reporting. The selling sentiment has not peaked to get a sustainable rally. There is this weird feeling that there may just be more downside to come. Time will tell.

2c

Break out...

A WR7 followed by an NR7... tomorrow's numbers are 614, 612 and 610. It is narrowing. Although still in near term down trend but because of the oversold condition the bias is to the up side for at least one day. The target is still 620ish.

Good luck

2c

Not proud....

should have kept the first instinct that it fell out of the rising wedge and followed through. Yesterday was a retest (price action kind of clouded the issue, although it was 50-50 chance for up trend since other indicators were not confirming).Now it has reached the second target of 616ish. Is it not amazing? Upon more reflection, since it has completed Fib 78 and arrived at lower channel, the anticipation was for a rebound. (DIA and QQQQ have just about filled the gaps). Monday's numbers are 624, 619 and 610. A WR7 which indicates exhaustion (in Selling). You can also see the smaller downward sloping channel within the bigger upward sloping channel. The upper line of the small channel is 620ish and perhaps a rebound to that level early next week. Whether it rises out of the small channel to retest the upper line of the bigger channel or continue its fall, only time will tell. Right now, the bias is continual its decent to the third target of 595ish.This number is the lower line of the weekly upward sloping channel (bearish) and is the fib 78 retrace of the whole rise from Mar low. Furthermore today it closed below the weekly pivot of 625. The market is rolling over.

2c

How about that...

From a confirmed sell to a buy in one day. Looks like the market has firm support at 625ish. Today it closed above pivot 627 and set to go up from here, unless of course bad earnings again. Just out of curiosity to pull out a 10 year chart and seems like strong support here. No wonder the violent bounce. Tomorrow's numbers are 638, 629 and 625.

2c

Fallen out of the wedge

The initial forecasted target 625 was reached today. It was an obvious short when it could not surpass pivot 631. Tomorrow's numbers are 630, 627 and 623. Also, there are many indicators that point to the next target of 616ish. First, today is a confirmed sell. The volatility is now in line with the price action. Meaning, investors are in realization of the fact that there are going to be a lot more hurt in earnings come next few weeks. If you look at DIA or QQQQ there is a gap they have to fill. This is inline with OEX falling to 616ish before reversing. As you can see this is where the Fib 78 line intersects the lower channel. In the past few days there were many tell tale signs, WR7, NR7, turtlesoupsell and common sense says if the market does not go up it has to come down. It cannot stay put all the time. Bradley model is pretty accurate these days. April 7 was turn date and the next turn date is Apr27 and that pretty much says all of the earning season time frame. Further, it kind of projects the low of Mar to be revisited. It could well be, for as you can see the entire upward sloping channel is bearish and at some point, it could fall out of the channel to reach the March low, scary, that means, caution is advised for bulls. Just as everyone is talking bullish, you may find the rug pulled out underneath you.

2c

Conflicting signals...

Price action says further down but volatility is not confirming it. This is a very difficult trading environment. However, selling sentiment did show up today and OEX did not even close above S1, so the anticipation is still further down. After hours, UPS warned and slashed profit forecast. If anything it is going to be a very slow bleed. Bulls believe the bottom is in and are supporting the market. Others believe this is the start of another cycle down. Tomorrow's numbers are 633, 631 and 628. An NR7 again. Break out one way or the other and the bias is down.

2c

It has fallen out of the first rising wedge and

see if it will fall out of the second rising wedge and 625 should be the target if the up trend is to continue as shown in the posted chart today. After hour ALcoa reported loosing 50% of profits and AMD warned. There were also several reported sightings of R3. Tomorrow's numbers are 639, 636 and 631.

2c

Weekend Update ... A rising wedge?

Therefore the first target is 625ish and the second target if it falls out of the wedge is the lower channel at 615ish. Conservatively, the tail of the doji was not included to arrive at 615. This makes more sense with the weekly numbers of 645, 627 and 616.

2c

Strange...

The numbers for Monday are exactly the same as today's, 637, 633 and 629. You can see it dropped to s1 and rallied back to r1 only to close right back at pivot. 3 dojis in a row and the sell signal is getting stronger. Target is still 620-625ish. Although, there is still a small possibility of an uptick. The market ignores all bad news. 80,000 job loss didn't matter. In recession, there will be increasing magnitude of job loss and until at such time that 200k, 300k job loss hitting consumer spending then perhaps the market will wake up.

2c

On track....

Today it tried to retest the new high but could not surpass it. It resembles Sept5 of last year. An intermediate trend change but has to work off the OB before climbing higher. Conservatively, the near term target is 625 and tomorrow's numbers are 637, 633 and 629. We have turtlesoupsell and turtlesoup+1 signals two days in a row. It is coming folks.

2c

No surprise...

B2 Bomber Ben kind of admitted recession by using contraction instead of the "R" word. All in all, a gloom and doom picture of the economy. Today it traded above pivot most of the time. Shorting it was patience testing. Though eod selling was to be expected. At this junction, a couple of more days of rise is to be anticipated till unemployment Friday. Especially in light of the after hour RIMM good earning report. If you look at the chart posted today you will see another upward sloping bearish channel and the estimate is downtrend starting Friday or next week. This will probably coincide with the earning season. If any of the prophetic guess of another lower leg coming, this is judgement time. Tomorrow's numbers are 638, 634 and 630. Play the numbers and you will not get hurt.

2c

Another pattern violation...only in bear market

Talk about intervention to the extremes..right out of the gate it was a buy and now above 619 the intermediate trend is up. However, every time you have buying sentiment to the peak, a retrace will follow, more than likely by eod tomorrow. The next set of numbers are 642, 629 and 622. Recognise the range change? yes a WR7 and a turtlesoupsell....in addition, B2 Bomber Ben is talking tomorrow... but as long as 622 holds we are up trend....(by the way, ISM data is below 50, we are in recession, the market seems to take the slight improvement from last month as rallying fuel on top of the billions of write off from UBS)..the market is ignoring bad news now...

2c