Just cannot do swing trade anymore

The only way is day trading to survive or be a very long term investor. A bad employment number just nullified improvements in GDP, ISM, and productivity gains. The market slided further every time Bush spoke on the economy. It would have been better for him to keep his mouth shut. Ok we had a 400 Dow points drop and that obviously turned all indicators down and invalidated all forecasts. The numbers for Monday are 631, 625 and 613. An 18 points spread and of course WR7. This is the widest WR7 one could remember. There is also the Turtlesoupbuy signal out today. We had one two days ago and the effect of this one may not be too significant. The Trin was way up to 2.6 and the only other times were Mar 17 and April 15 and you know what happened shortly after. Looking at end of day option trades, many large blocks of Puts went through. You know what's going to happen...either a black Monday or a huge short squeeze come Monday. It is also a Bradley turn day Monday and who knows how significant that is.

Let's look at more charts. In the posted chart today, the channel is downward sloping and we know it is bullish but we don't know when. It is now at the confluence of 786 retracement from Apr 15 and 050 retracement from March 17. It also touches the lower channel. In the weekly data, it is at the oversold area, but it can stay there for a while. However, the only other time it stays OS for two weeks were back in January this year when we had the credit crunch scare. Do we still have that problem? With all the aggressive Fed easings the problem is supposed to have been slowly eliminated. This then must be recession fear. But then you have improved GDP, ISM, and productivity. Not great numbers, but nevertheless improving. The question is why the big sell off today? The bad employment number will probabily annihilate the view that the Fed is going to raise rates. All these lead one to believe that today's selling was way overdone and a bounce is at hand. This is the rational thinking but then the market is irrational. The trend is still down and 640 is the wall of resistance.

2c