Not entirely convinced yet

It closed at 661 above pivot 657 due to a late day rally. However, all other signs point to no buying yet. Although AA earnings may help a bit tomorrow, but today could be a one-day wonder. Selling sentiment did not come down much and buying sentiment is zilch in comparison. A big short squeeze and we need more buying sentiment if the rally is to be sustained. Perhaps a few more days of volatility. Tomorrow's numbers are 666, 657 and 652.

2c

Just heart breaking...

to see a perfect opportunity for the bulls to take charge and was wrecked by heresay. It was so close. Since it closed today at 651 which is very near s2 of 649, there is a very high probability for a rebound tomorrow. The numbers are 664, 657 and 644. If it closes above 657, the bulls still have hope, espcially Helicopter Ben will be talking on Thursday. Bears be careful here, since it is the eighth day without a bounce, longer than the November down draft. The daily H&S is finally complete and EW wave4 should begin and should be a quick one to 679 max. After that probably EW wave5 down to fullfil the weekly H&S to March low.

2c

Signs of turning

A technical signal, firstly volatility is decreasing and secondly every time there is a 20 point gap from the forecasted value, it will move back towards that point. Especially when the daily H&S is more than likely completed. Conservatively, from 657 to 676 and since it closed at around 662, a 15 point rise from here will net approx. 5-6 dollars, time value discounting including. Tomorrow's numbers are 667, 662 and 658.

2c

Another good day...

for the bears of course. Make no mistakes, this is to be expected. You can basically be a bear until the weekly turns, but then you need a bigger pocket book and a longer horizon. It broke out as expected from the narrowing of pivot numbers and to the downside because of the pitiful job creation numbers. The selling sentiment is very high, but since this is orderly exit, more selling is to be expected. Monday's numbers are 670, 665, and 655. Since the uptrend is broken to the downside, short on rallies until otherwise.

Daily H&S will complete at around 654
Weekly H&S will complete at 624 March low

2c

Pissing in the wind

A waste of time to trade day. It wanted to turn but couldn't. It will depend on employment number tomorrow. It got turn off at the pivot 680 today. Tomorrow's numbers are narrowing, 680, 677 and 674. It will break out one way or the other. Looking at the technicals tonight, the weekly is down trend, that means the upside is limited. ADP reported higher job creation, I am not optimistic for the bulls. We shall see, follow the trend...

2c

Very Happy New Year to the Bears

If you bought puts on Dec26, your money has already doubled in 5 days. This is the beauty of OEX options. OK, where do we go from here? Fundamentally, we have political turmoil in Pakistan that sparked crude oil to $100 per barrel. ISM reading below 50 confirms a recession. FOMC minutes did not save the day. The best the market can hope for now is another rate cut but that would not do any good to inflation. Technically, the selling sentiment has almost reached the turning point but not yet. Conservatively, one to two more days, and would depend on the Friday's unemployment data. Tomorrow's numbers are 685, 679 and 670. This is a wide ranging day prediction but it has to have a strong close for a trend change. Dec11 and Dec26 highs mark the two tops and they are lower highs. There is no change of trend signal since Dec11. So go figure. It seems like an inverted Bradley for 2008 at this point.

http://www.amanita.at/i/bradley/bradley2008.GIF

Good luck

2c

2008 New Year

Hope everyone had a good rest. To recap, buy on Dec18 and sell on Dec26 and remain short. Review of last FOMC minutes this week should reinforce the fact that the Fed was concerned about inflation. Monday's housing number did not excite the market. Near term target for OEX is 680 or lower. Watch 689, 687 and 684.

2c