To count the waves starting from Oct, the followings are important turn dates.
Oct11,
Nov27,
Dec10,
Feb05 2008.
As you can see, the retracements follow Fib ratios closely. Bear in mind the 618 sometimes overshoots. Therfore we are now in wave 4 and if wave2=wave4 then target is 661 else a conservative take is 38 Fib ratio to 650. After that a wave5 down follows.
2c
3 comments:
I see the point of your count. based on your count, the wave 2 is zigzag (Dec11), then wave 4 tends to be a triangle or zigzag. you may argue that wave 4 is complete on 2/1, then we are in wave 5 down. If we are in wave 5 down which again will be five waves in smaller degrees, then we could turn up on Monday, and will not surpass the 2/1 high for small degrees of wave 2.
you see this is getting crazy by counting different waves. that's why it works only if it works.
p
by the way, looking at weekly chart, your count is better and makes more sense. XLF, RUT, NDX all look the same. But I still see we are in wave 4 B down. A and B of the ABC corrective moves are zigzag. the next move is down, at least for 1-2 days.
I am not trading as much now, cuz I have a day job to do.
p
Ya, the weekly is a good way to do EW. I do have other indicators that confirm the turning points. You see, wave 1 and 3 are 5waves structures in themselves. As you pointed out, wave2 is ABC and wave4 is ABC and we are in B down so therefore there will be a C up.
I spent a lot of time on turning points such that I only trade a few times. Trading every minute or even day trading is the quickest way to the poor house. Swing trading is the best. If you follow these wave patterns, you only trade 4 times since October. If you have time you can also trade the inner waves.
2c
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